On 9 January 2025, the Lebanese Parliament elected army commander Joseph Aoun as President.

Lebanon has had a caretaker presidency since October 2022, when Michel Aoun (who is not related) left office, and the Parliament was unable to agree a successor.

The vote follows a 14-month conflict between Hezbollah, which the UK has classified as a proscribed terrorist organisation, and Israel. Hezbollah has exerted significant political and military power in Lebanon since its emergence in the 1980s, maintaining an armed force independent of the state.

Some analysts have said that Joseph Aoun’s election is an opportunity for the Lebanese state to exert its power over Hezbollah, and to address the country’s economic challenges.

This Insight looks at the challenges facing Lebanon and the significance of the election.

Who is Joseph Aoun?

Joseph Aoun has served in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) since 1983 and has been its commander since 2017. He is a Maronite Christian (as, by convention, are all Lebanese presidents under the country’s confessional political system).

He was elected after two rounds of voting, winning 99 out of 128 votes in the second round. He will hold office for six years.

Saudi Arabia, France and the United States are considered by observers to have backed Aoun’s candidacy.

His election follows the withdrawal of a candidate initially backed by Hezbollah, Suleiman Frangieh, earlier in January. Frangieh backed Aoun, as did Hezbollah, in the second round of Parliamentary voting.

How important is electing a president in Lebanon?

The president is head of the armed forces and is responsible for naming and removing the prime minister. However, it is the prime minister who directs policy, together with the cabinet. A caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, has been in office since 2022.

President Aoun has said he will move quickly to appoint a Prime Minister. He also said that the Lebanese Armed Forces will have a monopoly on arms within Lebanon (which requires disarming Hezbollah) and plans reforms to the public administration.

The US Presidential Envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, said Aoun’s election was a “step towards peace and stability”. US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has previously argued that choosing a president would improve the Lebanese state’s ability to “stand up, assert itself, [and] take responsibility for the lives of its citizens”.

The UK has said it will support “vital reforms” under Aoun.

Analysis for the Washington Institute think tank argues additional steps will be required beyond a electing a new president, including new economic and military assistance and potentially sanctions against some Lebanese politicians.

The UK has previously introduced sanctions against the former Central Bank Governor of Lebanon for diverting funds for personal gain.

What might the election mean for Hezbollah?

Hezbollah has long been backed by Iran, and is widely seen as one of the strongest non-state armed groups in the Middle East.

Hezbollah’s 14-month conflict with Israel from October 2023 resulted in its military power being substantially degraded. Israel killed its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in September 2024, and estimated that it killed around 2,500 to 4,000 Hezbollah operatives (it may have had 40,000 to 50,000 fighters). Israel said Hezbollah was “no longer an effective tool” for Iran to threaten Israel.

Hezbollah also lost a significant ally when Bashar al-Assad fled Syria in December 2024. Syria played an influential role in Lebanon under Assad and his father, with a Syrian army presence in Lebanon from 1976 to 2005. Hezbollah fought in the Syrian civil war in support of Assad.

In December, Hezbollah said it would focus on Lebanon. The group will continue to wield influence as a representative of Lebanon’s Shia groups, with Hezbollah representatives and allied parties in the March 8 political coalition in Parliament. Hezbollah voted for both Michel and Joseph Aoun as Presidents, and has a history of holding ministerial office.

Analysis for the Atlantic Council think tank argues that Aoun is unlikely to “provoke a confrontation with Hezbollah”, which remains “domestically powerfully”.

What is the outlook for Lebanon’s economy?

Lebanon has been experiencing a severe economic crisis since 2019, with its gross domestic product falling 38% between 2019 and 2024 and a peak annual inflation rate of 221% in 2023. The 2023/24 conflict with Israel is estimated to have caused US$8.5 billion of damage.

Lebanon has also hosted an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees, 90% of whom are estimated to live in poverty. An estimated 1.3 million people were also displaced in the 2023/24 Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

An agreement for a financing programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to aid Lebanon was reached in 2022. In October 2024, the IMF said it was ready to engage on support.

While a President has now been chosen, the World Bank has previously argued that Lebanon’s economic challenges have been “orchestrated by the country’s political elite that have long captured the state”. In 2020, the then President, Michel Aoun, acknowledged corruption was “deeply rooted” and “institutionalised”.

What issues face Israel-Lebanon relations?

Lebanon and Israel do not have formal diplomatic relations and have a disputed land border (an agreement over maritime boundaries was reached in 2022).

On 27 November 2024, a ceasefire agreement was reached between Israel and Hezbollah. It gave Israel and Hezbollah 60 days to withdraw from border areas, and for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN Interim Force in Lebanon to establish control over southern Lebanon. Israel said it would act against Hezbollah if it sought to obtain weapons or attack Israel.

The LAF did not participate in fighting with Israel. The UK has pledged more support for the LAF.

In January 2025, Hezbollah warned its “patience may run out” with Israel.

Joseph Aoun says his Presidency will develop a strategy for the “Lebanese state […] to remove the Israeli occupation and deter its aggression”.

Israeli Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa’ar, said he hoped that “this choice [of Aoun] will contribute towards stability”.

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, made in 2006, which calls for the LAF to have a monopoly on arms within Lebanon and for no foreign forces to be in the country without Lebanon’s consent, remains unmet.

Further reading


About the author: Philip Loft is a Commons Library researcher, specialising in international affairs.

Photo by: Ramzi via Adobe Stock