Africa in 2025: G20 presidency and a new UK approach to Africa

Louisa Brooke-Holland

A new UK approach to Africa?

David Lammy, when Shadow Foreign Secretary, spoke of the need for a new strategy for Africa “that does more than merely offer aid”. In November 2024, during his first trip to the continent as Foreign Secretary, he launched a five-month consultation process “to ensure African voices inform and sit at the very heart of the UK’s new approach to the continent”. The government has not indicated whether it plans to publish the outcome of the consultation.

In November 2024, during the Foreign Secretary’s trip to Nigeria, the government announced it was “elevating” its relationship with Nigeria to a strategic partnership. The partnership will focus on strengthening economic, trade and investment opportunities; security and defence issues; and migration, justice and home affairs. In South Africa, David Lammy pledged to develop a new UK-South Africa growth plan, focused on increasing trade and agricultural employment.

The G20 presidency is held by an African country for the first time

South Africa holds the presidency of the G20 in 2025. It is the first time an African country has led the group of 20 of the world’s largest economies. The country is expected to “drive a progressive, Africa-centric and development-orientated agenda” that puts the continent’s development “at the heart of the global economic agenda”, according to the Irish Times . The G20 summit will be in Johannesburg in November 2025.

Four priorities: Debt relief, resilience, climate finance and critical minerals

South Africa has set out the four areas it intends to champion.

Debt sustainability for low-income countries

Ensuring debt sustainability for low-income countries is a priority for South Africa, building on work undertaken under Brazil and India’s G20 presidencies. A study by Christian Aid found that 34 African countries spend more on external debt payments than on healthcare and/or education in 2023. President Ramaphosa said that, as part of the presidency, he will set up a cost of capital commission to examine issues that “impair the ability of low and middle-income countries to access affordable capital”.

Strengthening disaster resilience and response

South Africa is also looking to strengthen disaster resilience and to scale up post-disaster reconstruction, reflecting the importance of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change across the African continent.

Energy transition

Mobilising finance for a “just energy transition” and securing agreement from other countries on “increasing the quality and quantity of climate finance flows” to developing countries is another priority area.

Harnessing critical minerals

South Africa’s fourth priority is critical minerals. The country says it will use its presidency to champion the use of critical minerals as an “engine for growth and development in Africa”.

Financial reform and pandemic preparedness

South Africa has also said it will take forward issues raised under previous presidencies, including reforming global financial structures and improving pandemic preparedness. South Africa had used its presidency of the BRICS in 2023 to advance similar themes. The recent inclusion of the African Union as a full member of the G20 may strengthen South Africa’s drive to focus on issues that directly affect the continent.

Cost of living pressures

The high cost of living, significant levels of unemployment, particularly among young people, and frustration with government policies led to mass demonstrations across the continent in 2024. Those frustrations were also expressed at the ballot box, with governing parties losing power or a significant number of seats in what was a bumper year for elections.

The end of the 58-year dominance of the ruling party in Botswana in November 2024 caused a “political earthquake”, according to one BBC correspondent. Duma Boko’s victory reflected “widespread frustration with economic stagnation and rising unemployment” according to the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Ghana’s new President, John Mahama, took office in early 2025 following what has been described as the country’s worst economic crisis in years.

Economic pressures are particularly noticeable in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country. The World Bank estimates almost half of Nigerians live below the national poverty line. Nationwide protests erupted in summer 2024. Indermit Gill, chief economist and senior vice-president for development economics at the World Bank, has urged Nigeria to continue implementing financial and economic reforms. Mr Gill says turning around Nigeria’s economy “would be a game-changer for market-orientated reforms across the continent”, according to the Financial Times.

However, Africa also has the most economies with GDP growth forecasts of at least 6% in 2025, according to the IMF’s world economic outlook. CNBC Africa, based in South Africa, suggests that Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania present the “perfect mix of sectoral drivers of growth”, and both are due elections this year.

Fewer elections in 2025

After a swathe of elections across the continent in 2024, there are fewer elections to come in 2025.

In Tanzania, President Samia Suluhu Hassan stands at a “critical crossroad”, according to Business Insider Africa. Although she was initially described as a reformist, who moved to end years of political repression under her predecessor, there are now concerns Tanzania is again repressing opposition candidates and parties. Elections are due in November.

Other elections to watch are in Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon. Both have long-serving presidents who have yet to indicate whether they intend to run again. Cameroon’s president, Paul Biya is, at 91, the world’s oldest head of state. Both elections are due to be held by October.

Important elections for the African Union

In February, the African Union (AU) will elect a new senior leadership team. The AU has been criticised for its response to political unrest and conflict among its member states and the next chairperson of the AU Commission will likely be important in shaping the organisation’s future. Candidates include Kenya’s former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, Djibouti’s current Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, and former Foreign Minister of Madagascar, Richard Randriamandrato.

Ongoing tensions in the Horn of Africa

Diplomatic tensions between Ethiopia and neighbouring countries in the Horn of Africa appeared to have reduced when Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to end their dispute in December 2024. The agreement, mediated by Turkey, sought to resolve the tensions that had arisen when Somaliland signed a deal giving port access to land-locked Ethiopia. The announcement was welcomed by the UK Government.

However, tensions between countries in the region is affecting the formation and funding of the establishment of a new African peacekeeping mission to support Somalia’s ongoing fight against al-Shabaab in 2025.

There has also been speculation that the incoming Trump administration could formally recognise the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, which has long sought recognition as an independent country.

Sudan remains embroiled in civil war and a humanitarian crisis. At the end of 2024, the UN said famine was already present in five areas and may spread further in 2025. Millions of people have been internally displaced or sought refuge in neighbouring countries.

Of note is Turkey’s offer to act as a mediator in Sudan and its role in resolving Ethiopian/Somalia tensions. This reflects not just Turkey’s growing influence in the region but also its wider strategy to become “a pivotal actor in global diplomacy”, according to Bravin Onditi, a researcher at the Kenyan-based Horn Institute.

France withdraws from West Africa

The planned withdrawal of French troops from the Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Chad in 2025 will mark an end of an era for the former colonial power in West Africa. Since 2020, France has withdrawn troops from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger after military leaders severed long-standing defence agreements.

Anti-French sentiment has been rising in the region, and Russia has sought to fill the gap, with mixed results.

The Commons Library briefing Coups and political stability in West Africa discusses France’s declining presence in the region.