
Iran experienced significant military setbacks in 2024, as did many of its allies (including armed groups and groups proscribed as terrorist groups by the UK). Leaders of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon were killed by Israeli action, while Bashar al-Assad’s government fell in Syria in December. Iran and Israel also had their first direct exchanges of fire in April and October since the creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979.
This Insight surveys the position of Iran’s allies in the region, the status of its nuclear programme, and the role of the US, China and Russia.
How weakened are Iran’s allies?
Since the Islamic Republic of Iran was established in 1979, Iran has supported armed and terrorist groups across the Middle East with the aims of competing with or threatening regional powers (notably Saudi Arabia or Israel), establishing friendly governments, and exporting similar revolutions to other countries. Many groups have their own separate networks and base of support beyond Iran.
Hamas in Gaza
In September 2024 Israel’s Defence Minister judged that “Hamas as a military formation no longer exists”. Many of its prominent leaders have been killed.
However, following the ceasefire-hostage agreement of January 2025, Hamas members continued to police Gaza. In January 2024, the then US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, also warned that Hamas has “recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost”.
The UK, the United States, and Israel all state that Hamas must not be allowed to retain control of Gaza. Foreign Secretary David Lammy has said that to “[pull] the rug out from under the terrorists” will require “a political solution and political horizon” for the region.
Under the second stage of the January ceasefire-hostage agreement, Israeli forces are to withdraw from Gaza and an alternative administration to Hamas to be established. What form this will take is yet to be agreed.
President Donald Trump says he is “not confident” the agreement will hold.
Hezbollah in Lebanon
Hezbollah lost a significant number of fighters and its leader in its 2023/24 conflict with Israel.
In January 2025 the Lebanese parliament elected a President after a two-year gap. Hezbollah had been pushing for alternative candidates.
New President Joseph Aoun has committed to the Lebanese army having a monopoly on arms, though analysts note he may want to avoid direct confrontation to disarm Hezbollah, which may result in conflict.
Members and allies of Hezbollah remain in the Lebanese parliament, and Hezbollah has support in the Shia Muslim community. There are reports Hezbollah is seeking control of the finance ministry in the new government.
Bashar al-Assad in Syria
The government of President Bashar al-Assad rapidly collapsed as the Syrian opposition, including proscribed terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), advanced towards Damascus in December. Bashar al-Assad left for Russia.
Iran provided substantial financial and military support to Assad, as did Hezbollah. The two have now lost a route to deliver weapons. The dominant armed groups in Syria are hostile to Iran re-establishing a presence there. However, no single group is in control in Syria, and renewed instability cannot be ruled out.
Houthis in Yemen
The Houthis continue to control most of Yemen’s population. They have been extending their relationships beyond Iran, including with Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and Iraqi groups.
The Biden administration reported exploratory talks between the Houthis and Russia in 2024 on sending arms to Yemen, but these did not proceed. Russia did not comment.
Despite UK, American and Israeli air strikes in 2024, analysts consider the Houthis may now be stronger than in 2023.
Peace talks in Yemen remain stalled and there are warnings of the potential for a renewed conflict.
Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq
Iran-backed militias, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), launched attacks on Israel and on US and UK troops in 2023/24. In 2024 the Iraqi Government said it wanted the PMF to disarm or become part of state security forces. The US has reportedly encouraged this.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei says the PMF should be “maintain[ed] and enhance[d]”.
US forces are expected to remain in Iraq under a new agreement when the coalition against Daesh/Islamic State leaves the majority of Iraq by September.
Iraqi parliamentary elections are expected in 2025. Some PMF members have already formed political parties and more are expected to follow.
How advanced is Iran’s nuclear programme?
The International Atomic Energy Agency warns Iran’s enrichment of uranium to weapons-grade level is accelerating “dramatically”.
Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful, though in 2024 there was open domestic debate on whether to develop nuclear weapons.
In December 2024, Antony Blinken said Iran’s regional losses may create “more thinking” about developing a nuclear weapon, but there remained a path for negotiation. Iran’s supreme leader has said there is “no barrier” to engaging with the United States.
In October 2025 the power to apply “snapback” sanctions on Iran under the 2015 nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA), expires. Snapback would reapply restrictions on conventional arms and missiles that have been lifted as part of the JCPOA.
The UK, France and Germany said in December 2024 they were prepared to apply snapback sanctions. The US cannot, as it left the JCPOA in 2018. Iran says the reimposition of snapback measures will be “reciprocated by a firm and proportionate response”.
What’s the state of Iran’s relations with Russia and China?
The US, UK and others believe Iran has supplied Russia with drones and missiles for use in Ukraine. Iran says the provision of drones pre-date the Russian invasion in 2022 and that missiles might have been sent “in the past”.
Russia and Iran have continued to deepen military ties, signing a new treaty in January 2025. While the new treaty does not include a mutual defence clause, it restates previous commitments to joint exercises and to exchange information.
In 2025, Iran will join the free trade area of the Eurasian Economic Union. It previously joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2023. Russia is a member of both, and China is a member of the SCO.
China continues to be largest purchaser of US-sanctioned Iranian oil. However, sanctions continue to limit the degree of trade and Iran receives less Chinese investment than Gulf states.
What actions might the Trump administration take?
In 2018, during his first term, President Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA. Since 2019, Iran has increasingly violated the agreement.
The Trump administration is expected to renew its sanctions campaign of “maximum pressure” to encourage negotiations. While President, Joe Biden continued the sanctions, with some exceptions, and introduced new ones.
Analysts note the US may decide to strengthen the enforcement of Iranian oil sanctions (PDF).
Further reading
- Commons Library, Middle East instability in 2023-25. Collection of Library research on the Middle East, Iran, and recent conflict.
- Foreign Policy, How weakened is Iran?, 22 January 2025
- US Institute for Peace, The coming Iranian nuclear challenge for 2025, 13 January 2025
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Country to watch 2025: Iran, 25 December 2024
About the author: Philip Loft is a Commons Library researcher, specialising in international affairs.
Photo by: Borna_Mir via Adobe Stock