Main Estimates: Government spending plans for 2024/25

What are Estimates?

One of Parliament’s longest-standing functions is the consideration and authorisation of government’s spending plans, requiring the government to obtain parliamentary consent before spending public money. These are presented to Parliament in documents known as “Estimates”. There is a separate Estimate for each government department.

Estimates typically take place twice per financial year:

• May to June: Main Estimates (initial departmental spending plans)
• February to March: Supplementary Estimates (revised final departmental spending plans)

On 22 May 2024 then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a general election, and Parliament was subsequently dissolved on 30 May 2024. The Estimates were not able to be laid prior to dissolution. For the 2024/25 Main Estimates, the processes are therefore not being followed (see our Insight post about this), and the Estimates are being considered by the House of Commons on 24 July 2024.

A previous Library briefing paper set out details of the government’s final spending plans for the previous financial year, 2023/24.

What has changed since last year?

Although there has been a change in government, there has not yet been an updated Spending Review. The spending plans contained in the Main Estimates therefore continue to be based on funding envelope set out in the 2021 Spending Review under the previous Conservative government.

Compared to the final spending plans for 2023/24, overall spending in Estimates is up by £44.8 billion (+3.9%). This is the net result of the following changes:

• Resource DEL falls from £511.2 billion in 2023/24 to £488.3 billion in 2024/25 (-4.5%).
• Capital DEL increases from £110.7 billion in 2023/24 to £113.8 billion in 2024/25 (+2.8%).
• Resource AME increases from £456.4 billion in 2023/24 to £503.6 billion in 2024/25 (+10.4%); and
• Capital AME increases from £82.1 billion in 2023/24 to £99.3 billion in 2024/25 (+21.0%).

There are no new drivers of spending in the 2024/25 Main Estimates of the magnitude contained in the Estimates of some recent years – which included significant funding packages relating to Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and measures to combat the increasing cost of living. The main drivers of spending in 2024/25 derive from the plans laid out in Spending Review 2021 and subsequent spending announcements.

Parliament’s role in considering Estimates

The usual process for considering and approving Estimates is based around ‘Estimates Day(s)’, where Parliamentary time is given to the debate, consideration and approval of government spending plans. Before Estimates can be approved, Estimates Day debates take place on the floor of the House of Commons. Any backbench member may bid for a topic for one of these debates, which should be linked to the spending, or an aspect of spending, contained in the Main Estimate of a department or other body.

The Backbench Business Committee considers bids for debates at a meeting and decisions are announced in a Business Statement. Two days of debates are usually allocated for the Main Estimates.

Following the debates, the House is invited to agree motions on those Estimates selected for debate. Members may agree or reject these motions, or suggest amendments reducing expenditure. There is a further ‘roll up motion’ covering the remaining Estimates, which members may accept or reject. Under the ‘Crown prerogative’, only the government can propose spending, so amendments to increase spending are not permitted.

Once motions have been authorised, a Supply and Appropriation bill is presented. Unlike most bills, there is no committee stage, and as with other financial legislation the House of Lords’ role is purely formal. On receiving Royal Assent, departments are able to draw upon the agreed funds set out in the Act for the purposes Parliament has authorised. Advances from the Contingencies Fund are repaid.

This year, due to the general election announcement, the usual processes have not been followed. The House of Commons will be asked to approve the Estimates without debate or detailed scrutiny on Wednesday 24 July 2024.