Libya: Political developments since 2011

The evolution of rival administrations

In 2011 the long-time dictator of Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, was overthrown with the help of UK and western forces. In a 2016 report, the Foreign Affairs Committee held David Cameron, Prime Minister at the time of the 2011 intervention, responsible for failing to develop a coherent strategy to support and shape post-Gaddafi Libya. The country has been marked by division and conflict ever since.

After a general election in mid-2014, violence in Libya quickly increased and the country divided geographically and institutionally into two, with the eastern and western halves each having rival governments backed by foreign powers and armed groups.

State institutions, hollowed out during the Gaddafi dictatorship, crumbled or were divided between the two rival power centres: the eastern authorities based on the House of Representatives (HoR) and the forces of General Haftar, and the western authorities based on the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). The former is supported by General Haftar, the powerful head of the Libyan National Army. The former UN special representative on Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, has described Haftar as “indisputably the decision-making authority on political, military and security matters in eastern and southern Libya”.

Efforts to form a unity interim government and to organise elections for a permanent government have faltered.

The formation of an interim Government of National Unity (GNU) in 2021, alongside plans to hold elections by the end of the year for a permanent government, brought a measure of optimism to the political process.

However, the postponement of the elections and disagreements between the key stakeholders prompted the eastern based House of Representatives to form a rival Government of National Stability, now led by Osama Hamada.

The Government of National Unity, led by Prime Minister AbdulHamid Dabaiba (also spelt Dheibeh or Dheibah), is recognised internationally and by the UN.

The political situation in 2024

The situation is at a political impasse, with key players divided over what should come first: elections which lead to a permanent government, or an interim government to organise elections. During 2023 there was some progress in resolving some of the issues concerning electoral laws.

However, the head of the UN mission in Libya, Stephanie Koury, has described the situation now as at a “stalemate”. Briefing the Security Council in August 2024, Ms Koury said unilateral actions by Libyan political, military and security actors have “increased tension… [and] complicated efforts for a negotiated solution”. She said that the status quo is not sustainable. Her predecessor described a lack of “political will” by Libya’s main actors to move on from the status quo. A row over the governor of the Central Bank in August 2024 resulted in temporary restrictions on oil production and decreased revenues.

Libya remains divided geographically and institutionally between the Tripoli-based GNU, and the Tobruk-based GNS and House of Representatives.

UK policy

The previous UK Government said it “fully backs a Libyan-led, UN-facilitated political process” which, it says, “offers the best route to peace and stability”. In April 2024, the government described the political impasse in Libya as “unstainable” and continued to express its support for the UN’s efforts to broker a Libyan-owned and led political settlement.

The UK’s approach has so far remained the same under the new Labour government. At a UN Security Council meeting on Libya in August 2024, the UK’s Ambassador James Kariuki noted unilateral political initiatives by Libya’s main actors (discussed in section 5.2), reminded them of the central role of the UN in facilitating political dialogue, and called on Libyan stakeholders to protect Libyans’ rights.

Migration and climate issues

Libya is a key route for migrants and asylum seekers travelling through Africa towards Europe via the Mediterranean sea. The European Court of Auditors has criticised a €5 billion emergency trust fund for Africa, set up in 2015 as the EU’s “main tool for actions to support migration related issues in Libya”. The Guardian newspaper described the report as a “quietly devastating critique of one of the EU’s flagship policies”.

Tens of thousands of Sudanese refugees have arrived in Libya since the start of the Sudanese civil war in April 2023.

In September 2023 Storm Daniel caused major flooding in the coastal town of Derna, killing thousands of people and causing considerable destruction. The flooding was exacerbated by poorly maintained nearby dams, which ruptured during the heavy rains.

The devastation in Derna “exposed not only vulnerability to climate change but also the consequences of poor governance and mismanagement by two rival administrations” according to a report by SIPRI, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and NUPI, the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs published in August 2024.