Syria after Assad: Consequences and interim authorities 2025

In December 2024, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that President Bashar al-Assad, who had governed Syria since 2000, had resigned and offered asylum in Russia. Russian media say he is now in the country.

The announcement follows the rapid collapse of the Assad government’s military forces in Syria in the wake of an offensive from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other opposition groups, including the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). The HTS-led offensive was launched in November 2024 and culminated in the capture of Damascus in early December. 

In December HTS announced a transitional government and set out plans for a national dialogue on Syria’s future. HTS remains proscribed as a terrorist organisation by the UN, US, EU, UK and others. Opposition groups continue to vie for territorial control in Syria, with HTS and SNA taking areas controlled by the US-backed Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Other violence, involving some pro-Assad forces and in Alawite minority areas, has occurred.

In 2024-25 Israel also conducted military actions targeting Syrian military assets and chemical weapons facilities previously held by the Assad government. Israeli forces entered the Syria-Israel buffer zone and in 2025 said its presence in some parts will be “indefinite”  in order to protect Israel.

This research briefing describes the key local and international actors in Syria and continuing violence and human rights concerns; the status of Syria’s chemical weapons; the significance of Assad’s fall to his allies Iran and Hezbollah and the attempts of Russia to retain its Syrian bases; Israeli actions in the Golan Heights; HTS plans for the interim government and constitutional talks; and the strength of Islamic State/Daesh. It also sets out UK, US and EU actions and statements, including the UK and EU lifting some sanctions in 2025 to support economic recovery.

The Commons Library research briefing, Syrian civil war: timeline, UK aid and statistics, has a timeline of events in Syria since 2011, and describes the humanitarian situation, UK aid to Syria, and further resources on the conflict. 

What is the situation in Syria?

Bashar al-Assad has left Syria, and, according to the Russian Foreign Minister, he has resigned the presidency. Several armed groups now wield control in different areas of Syria, with HTS dominant. Assad, HTS, SNA and SDF have all been accused of human rights violations during the conflict.

Humanitarian need in Syria remains high, with an estimated 16.5 million people in need in 2025. Ongoing violence between the SDF and SNA in north east Syria has led to the displacement of around 1.1 million people and civilian and combatant casualties. In March, extensive violence reportedly killed many in fighting and acts of violence in minority Alawite areas. Executions by HTS of some pro-Assad forces and civilians was alleged. There has also been over a decade of extensive damage to Syrian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals. Syria’s neighbours have been seeking the return of refugees.

In December 2024 HTS, which controls the largest part of Syria and the capital, declared the establishment of a transitional government and in January the appointment of its leader as interim president. The transitional government is dominated by HTS and was planned to be in place until 1 March. The interim government has begun a national dialogue which will  make recommendations on a new Syrian constitution.

HTS says all armed groups should dissolve and become part of a single armed force. While some have agreed to this, Syria remains a patchwork of armed groups. The SDF has not yet dissolved though signed an agreement in principle to do so in 2025 in March. The SDF has been calling for a ceasefire in the north east as a prelude to a national dialogue.

What are international attitudes towards HTS?

HTS has its origins in Al-Qaeda although it says it broke from the group in 2016. Its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa) participated in the insurgency against US and UK coalition forces in Iraq in the 2000s.

The UN Security Council, UK, US, EU, and others consider it a terrorist group. All have said they will judge HTS by its actions, not words and they want it to protect civilians, minority groups and implement a peaceful transition. In December 2024 Prime Minister Keir Starmer said it was “too early” to reconsider the proscription of HTS as a terrorist organisation in the UK.

In 2025 the United Kingdom and European Union said they will amend their sanctions regimes to support economic reconstruction, if the transition makes sufficient progress. The UK removed some designations in March 2025 (PDF), following the EU in February. UK and EU changes focused on finance, energy and infrastructure. Sanctions include exemptions for humanitarian aid.

The UK, as well as the EU and US, have also sent officials to meet HTS leaders to discuss an inclusive political transition that protects human rights. Following the violence of March 2025, the UK Government said HTS “must ensure the protection of all Syrians” and “urgently establish a clear process and timeline for the next phase of the [political] transition”.

What role do Turkey and Israel have?

While Assad has fallen, some conflict and military activity is ongoing. In addition to US airstrikes against Islamic State/Daesh (see below), Israel and Turkey are two external actors continuing to be militarily active in Syria

Israel

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have moved from the occupied Golan Heights to occupy a UN buffer zone and also operate in southern Syria. The Heights are disputed between Israel and Syria. The UK and a 1981 UN Security Council resolution call for Israeli withdrawal from them. The US considers the Heights to be Israeli territory.

Israel said its actions in 2024 were a temporary move to pre-empt possible attacks and reflected the withdrawal of Assad government forces from the zone. In 2025, Israel said it would remain “indefinitely” at Mount Hermon to ensure security for Isreal and the Golan and wants the demilitarisation of parts of southern Syria with no HTS presence. The IDF also carried out many s­trikes against chemical weapons and military facilities in Syria in 2024 and 2025. Israel has previously attacked Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Syria since 2013. It has also announced an expansion of settlements in the occupied Golan Heights.

Turkey

Turkey continues to back the SNA, who launched operations against the SDF in November (Turkey has been launching such attacks since 2016). Turkey argues the SDF has links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), who have been waging an insurgency in Turkey and are considered a terrorist organisation by the EU and UK, among others. Turkey has said it expects the PKK to be disarmed. In March the PKK leader said the group should lay down its arms. The SDF say this does not apply to them.

HTS has also suggested SDF areas should “gain freedom” but differentiated between Kurdish groups and the PKK. The UK and US say the SDF’s role in combatting Islamic State should be protected and acknowledge Turkish concerns on the PKK.

What does Assad’s fall mean for the region?

Analysts judge Turkey, which backed the opposition, as the most likely beneficiary of Assad’s fall. Turkey had been in failed negotiations with Assad to normalise relations in 2023 and 2024, with the aim of returning Syrian refugees  from Turkey. Turkey hosts around 2.9 million Syrian refugees. Turkey has offered to help train the armed forces of Syria if requested.

To Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah, the fall of Assad marks a strategic defeat for Iran’s “axis of resistance”. This is a network of armed and terrorist groups Iran has developed, including Iraqi militias, Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen, to threaten Israel and others. The loss of Assad cuts a significant land route from Iran to Lebanon and follows the weakening of Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran as military forces in their conflicts with Israel in 2023-25.

Russia was also a significant backer of President Assad, and its military bases in Syria were thought to have allowed it to project power across the Mediterranean and the Middle East and North Africa. The HTS interim defence minister says HTS is open to Russia retaining some bases, if it benefits Syria. Russian withdrawal from some areas has been reported in the meantime. ­

The consequences for Israel are also uncertain. There was no direct conflict between Bashar al-Assad and Israel, but the two countries have never signed a peace agreement and fought significant conflicts from 1948 onwards. The Israeli government says it considers threats from Syria to have “intensified”.

How strong is Islamic State/Daesh?

Islamic State lost its last territory in Syria in 2019. However, the US warned the group has claimed double the number of attacks in Syria in 2024 as in 2023 and may seek to take advantage of Assad’s fall.

The US has 2,000 troops in Syria, most of which are based in the north east alongside the SDF. The Biden administration said the troops would remain to ensure the defeat of Islamic State. The SDF holds several thousand Islamic State fighters in detention, as well as hosting camps of around 40,000 family and other members. The US has been seeking their repatriation, citing risks of radicalisation in camps and increased Islamic State activity.  

What is the status of the political transition?

Since December, the HTS-declared interim government has issued an amnesty for those conscripted into Assad government forces, dissolved the Syrian parliament (dominated by Assad’s Baathist party), said it wants to disarm and dissolve all non-state armed groups, and that it would protect religious and other minorities. The SDF has called for an end to military operations to facilitate national talks on Syria’s future.

The US, UK, European Union and UN have called for political negotiations under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2254 (2015) (PDF). This calls for a new Syrian constitution to be negotiated and free and fair elections held.

The UK has also issued a statement alongside European partners, the US, Turkey, and the Arab Contact group on Syria (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt and the Arab League Secretary General). It said transitional authorities must respect human rights, provide basic services, destroy chemical weapons and ensure accountability for human rights violations.

Update log

19 December 2024: Added information on UK, US and EU engagement with HTS, Israeli actions in the Golan Heights, and positions of HTS and SDF.

27 February 2025: Added information on HTS-declared interim government, Israeli actions, UK and EU plans on sanctions 

13 March 2025: Added information on March 2025 violence in Alawite areas, UK sanctions and the agreement between the SDF and interim authorities.