Syria after Assad 2024/25: Consequences and next steps

In December 2024, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that President Bashar al-Assad, who had governed Syria since 2000, had resigned and he had been offered asylum in Russia. Russian media say he is now in the country.

The announcement follows the rapid collapse of the Assad government’s military forces in Syria in the wake of an offensive from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other opposition groups, including the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), that was launched in November 2024 and culminated in the capture of Damascus in early December. 

What happens next in Syria and the region is uncertain. HTS has announced a transitional government and a general amnesty for those conscripted into the Assad forces. The UN envoy for Syria has warned “the conflict has not ended yet”. Opposition groups continue to vie for territorial control, with HTS and SNA taking areas controlled by the US-backed Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), including important oil fields. HTS is proscribed as a terrorist organisation by the UN, US, EU, UK and others.

In December 2024 Israel has conducted military actions targeting Syrian military assets and chemical weapons facilities previously held by the Assad government and says it has temporarily occupied the Syria-Israel buffer zone.

This research briefing addresses questions over UN peace negotiations for Syria; the key local and international actors in Syria; the status of Syria’s chemical weapons; the significance of Assad’s fall to his allies in Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran; Israeli actions in the Golan Heights; and the strength of Islamic State/Daesh. It also sets out UK, US and EU actions and statements.

The Commons Library research briefing, Syrian civil war: timeline, UK aid and statistics, has a timeline of events in Syria since 2011, and describes the humanitarian situation, UK aid to Syria, and further resources on the conflict. 

What is the situation in Syria?

Bashar al-Assad has left Syria, and, according to the Russian Foreign Minister, he has resigned the presidency. Several armed groups now wield control. Assad, HTS, SNA and SDF have all been accused of human rights violations during the conflict. HTS wants all groups to dissolve and disarm.

Humanitarian need in Syria remains high, with an estimated 16.7 million people in need, the highest since 2011. Food inflation has been high and Assad government subsidies for food and fuel had also been reduced. There has been extensive damage to Syrian infrastructure, including schools, roads and hospitals. Syria’s neighbours have also been seeking the return of refugees.

The Assad-appointed Prime Minister remained in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and on 10 December handed over control to an administration led by past leaders of the HTS administration in Idlib, where HTS was based. The administration says it will remain in place until 1 March 2025.

The Syrian opposition is not united and the country remains divided. HTS and the SNA have also taken territory from the SDF in December 2024. Russian military bases remain in coastal areas of Syria, Israeli forces have a presence in southern Syria, and US forces remain in the Syrian northeast.

What are international attitudes towards HTS?

HTS has its origins in Al-Qaeda although it says it broke from the group in 2016. Its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa) participated in the insurgency against US and UK coalition forces in Iraq in the 2000s.

The UN Security Council, UK, US, EU, and others consider it a terrorist group. All have said they will judge HTS by its actions, not words and they want it to protect civilians, all minority groups and implement a peaceful transition of power. Decisions on whether to remove sanctions are dependent on what happens next in Syria. In December, the US, EU and UK said they were in contact with HTS. Prime Minister Keir Starmer also said it was “too early” to reconsider its proscription as a terrorist organisation in the UK.

What role do Turkey and Israel have?

While Assad has fallen, some conflict and military activity is ongoing. In addition to US airstrikes against Islamic State/Daesh (see below), Israel and Turkey are two external actors continuing to be militarily active in Syria:

• The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have moved from the occupied Golan Heights to occupy a UN buffer zone and also operate in southern Syria. The Heights are disputed between Israel and Syria. The UK and a 1981 UN Security Council resolution call for Israeli withdrawal from them. The US considers the Heights to be Israeli territory. Israel says its actions in 2024 are a temporary move to pre-empt possible attacks and reflects the withdrawal of Assad government forces from the zone. The IDF has also reportedly carried out 498 strikes against chemical weapons and military facilities in Syria since the fall of Assad. Israel did not previously target Assad forces– it has attacked Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Syria since 2013, however. It has also announced an expansion of settlements in the occupied Golan Heights.

• Turkey continues to back the SNA, who launched operations against the SDF in November (Turkey has been launching such attacks since 2016). Turkey argues the SDF has links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), who have been waging an insurgency in Turkey and are considered a terrorist organisation by the EU and UK, among others. Turkey has said it expects the PKK to be disarmed. HTS has also suggested SDF areas should “gain freedom” but differentiated between Kurdish groups and the PKK. The UK and US say the SDF’s role in combatting Islamic State should be protected and acknowledge Turkish concerns on the PKK.

What does Assad’s fall mean for the region?

Analysts judge Turkey, which backed the opposition, as the most likely beneficiary of Assad’s fall. Turkey had been in failed negotiations with Assad to normalise relations in 2023 and 2024, with the aim of returning Syrian refugees  from Turkey. Turkey hosts around 2.9 million Syrian refugees. Turkey has offered to help train the armed forces of Syria if requested.

To Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah, the fall of Assad marks a strategic defeat for Iran’s “axis of resistance”. This is a network of armed and terrorist groups Iran has developed, including Iraqi militias, Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen, to threaten Israel and others. The loss of Assad cuts a significant land route from Iran to Lebanon and follows the weakening of Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran as military forces in their conflicts with Israel in 2023/24.

Russia was also a significant backer of President Assad, and its military bases in Syria were thought to have allowed it to project power across the Mediterranean and the Middle East and North Africa. The future of these bases is now uncertain. Withdrawal from some areas has been reported.

The consequences for Israel are also uncertain. There was no direct conflict between Bashar al-Assad and Israel, but the two countries have never signed a peace agreement and fought significant conflicts from 1948 onwards. The Israeli government says it considers threats from Syria to have “intensified”.

How strong is Islamic State/Daesh?

Islamic State lost its last territory in Syria in 2019. However, the US warned the group has claimed double the number of attacks in Syria in 2024 as in 2023 and may seek to take advantage of Assad’s fall.

The US has 900 troops in Syria, most of which are based in the north east alongside the SDF. It intends for these troops to remain to ensure the defeat of Islamic State. The SDF holds several thousand Islamic State fighters in detention, as well as hosting camps of around 40,000 family and other members. The US has been seeking their repatriation, citing risks of radicalisation in camps and increased Islamic State activity.  

What is the status of the political transition?

In December 2024 HTS appointed a transitional government. Its members were previously part of its administration in Idlib province.

Since Assad’s fall, HTS and groups linked to it have issued an amnesty for those conscripted into Assad government forces, dissolved the Syrian parliament (dominated by Assad’s Baathist party), said it wants to disarm and dissolve all non-state armed groups, and that it would protect religious and other minorities. The SDF has called for an end to military operations to facilitate national talks on Syria’s future.

The US, UK, European Union and UN have called for political negotiations under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2254 (2015) (PDF). This calls for a new Syrian constitution to be negotiated and free and fair elections held.

The UK has also issued a statement alongside European partners, the US, Turkey, and the Arab Contact group on Syria (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt and the Arab League Secretary General). In addition to endorsing UNSC 2254, it said transitional authorities must respect human rights, provide basic services to the population, destroy chemical weapons stockpiles and ensure accountability for human rights violations under Assad.

In recent years, most negotiations have taken place under the Astana process, between Iran, Turkey and Russia. These did not agree a political settlement. In December, Astana countries called for talks under UNSCR 2254.

Update log

19 December 2024: Added information on UK, US and EU engagement with HTS, Israeli actions in the Golan Heights, and positions of HTS and SDF.