Myanmar’s civil war

Myanmar’s civil war is ongoing. This Commons Library research briefing sets out the conflict’s origins, current state of the conflict, and the UK and international response. It also covers the effects of the 2025 earthquake.  

What are the origins of the civil war?

Myanmar’s civil war was triggered by the 2021 military coup but is also a result of long-standing tensions between the military and civil society, and between the Bamar ethnic majority and the country’s ethnic minorities.

Myanmar’s state military, the Tatmadaw, has been intermittently fighting ethnic armed groups based largely in the country’s border regions since it first seized power in 1962.

A partial restoration of democracy began in 2008, and later elections in 2015 brought in a civilian-led government. However, the military retained a significant amount of power. During this period peace talks led to most of the larger armed groups signing ceasefires with the government.

Civil disobedience and mass protests after the 2021 coup began to morph into organised armed resistance. Opposition political figures formed a parallel government known as the National Unity Government (NUG).

In the months following the coup civilians started to take up weapons, joining local militia groups. Many of these volunteers were young people from the Bamar ethnic majority living in the country’s central plains and cities. This is the first time in Myanmar’s recent history that the armed forces have faced violent opposition from young Bamars.

Following the 2021 coup many of the armed ethnic groups ended their ceasefires and joined the fight against the military junta.

What’s happening in the civil war?

The junta’s armed forces began to lose significant territory at the end of 2023 and throughout 2024.

Much of the territory taken by the various opposition forces is in the country’s border regions, and the Tatmadaw retain control over most of Myanmar’s urban areas including its largest cities where most of the population live.

China intervened providing aid to the junta and by applying pressure to some of the opposition forces, helping stabilise the military regime.

To April 2025, 6,486 civilians are reported to have been killed during the civil war, including 1494 women and 751 children, according to the NGO Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

What role are other countries playing including the UK?

China has the biggest influence of any country in Myanmar. It has supported the military regime in part to protect its significant investments in the country, and it has been pushing the Tatmadaw to hold elections, though most analysts believe these will be highly challenging to hold in the midst of the civil war.

Thailand, due to its historic links with the Tatmadaw, and also reflective of fears that the collapse of the regime might lead to a bigger influx of refugees, has also supported the junta. Russia has provided arms to the junta and given it support in international institutions like the UN.

The UK has imposed financial sanctions (PDF) on 39 individuals and 37 entities in Myanmar in response to the military coup and the conduct of the junta during the civil war.

What is the humanitarian situation in Myanmar?

The UN Refugee Agency estimates that as of 3 March 2025 there are over 3.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Myanmar.

Myanmar was hit by severe flooding in July 2024 due to monsoon rains, and then again in September 2024 due to Typhoon Yagi, causing significant damage and casualties.

These impacts came in addition to an “already worsening humanitarian crisis”, according to the UN. The UN funding appeal for Myanmar was only 36% funded in 2024 (US$361 million of the requested US$994 million).

The UN’s humanitarian appeal for 2025 launched in December 2024 is seeking US$1.1 billion in funding for Myanmar in 2025 to support 5.5 million people, though a total of 19.9 million people are projected to be in need in 2025.

There have also been reports of serious human rights violations during the conflict, including against Rohingya Muslims, who live predominantly in Myanmar’s Rakhine State.

What has been the effect of the March 2025 earthquake?

On 28 March 2025, Myanmar was hit by a 7.7 magnitude earthquake causing significant casualties.

On 6 April, it was reported by state media that the death toll had risen to 3,471, with 4,671 people injured and another 214 still missing.

The Tatmadaw and several of the opposition armed forces announced temporary ceasefires to aid the flow of aid into the country.

However, the overall situation remains serious with the ongoing conflict  already creating significant humanitarian need at a time when the world’s largest aid donor the US has significantly cut its international assistance.

The UK has announced an aid package of up to £25 million to help victims of the disaster (including £5 million to match donations to the Disasters Emergency Committee appeal).

What’s next for Myanmar?

Most analysts believe that the military junta is in a difficult situation having lost control of significant amounts of territory, and is significantly unpopular. However, due to a lack of coordination between the various opposition groups, and the junta’s support from key allies such as China analysts consider its collapse unlikely.

Elections may offer a further flash-point, with the junta saying it will hold national elections across December 2025 and January 2026. High humanitarian need, displacement and armed conflict are likely to continue in 2025.