Kashmir: Renewed India-Pakistan tensions

From the evening of 6 May until 10 May 2025, India and Pakistan conducted a series of military strikes against each other. They declared a ceasefire on 10 May.

The spark for the confrontation was the killing of 26 people by gunmen in an attack in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, on 22 April 2025.

India, which has long insisted Pakistan supports terrorism in Indian-administered Kashmir, said that Pakistan-based insurgent groups were behind the attack.

Pakistan has denied providing such support and said it was not involved in the Pahalgam incident, calling for an independent investigation into its origins.

Historical basis for the conflict

India and Pakistan’s dispute over Kashmir has its origins in the partition of India after British colonial rule ended in 1947. Kashmir is a Muslim-majority region, split into an Indian-administered territory and a Pakistan-administered territory by a 450-mile Line of Control. China also controls part of the region’s land.

After conflict broke out between India and Pakistan in 1947, UN resolutions in 1948 helped broker a temporary ceasefire between the two sides and introduced a plan for a plebiscite (referendum) of Kashmiris to decide the region’s future status. The two sides agreed to the idea in principle but could not find agreement on the practicalities. The UN established a peace fire line delineating a border between the Pakistan-controlled and India-controlled territories.

After a major war between Pakistan and India in 1971, which included fighting in Kashmir, the parties signed a peace accord called the Simla Agreement, where they agreed to solve the conflict over Kashmir by peaceful means and respect the Line of Control as it stood at that time.

However, there have been numerous clashes between the Indian and Pakistani militaries across the Line of Control in the decades since.

In the late 1980’s an insurgency began in Indian-administered Kashmir that continues today, fuelled by groups that either support independence for Kashmir or wish for the whole region to join Pakistan.

India and Pakistan escalating measures

India initially reacted to the Pahalgam attack by closing its border with Pakistan, stopping bilateral trade, and saying it would suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, a key agreement regulating the management of the Indus River basin, which is vital for supplying both countries with water for irrigation and hydropower.

Pakistan responded by also closing its border and stopping trade. It also threatened to suspend all bilateral treaties with India, including the Simla Agreement.

On the night of 6–7 May 2025, India conducted a series of military strikes against targets in both Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Pakistan’s internationally recognised territory. India said it had targeted “terrorist infrastructure”, something Pakistan disputed, saying civilians had been targeted.

This initiated a series of escalatory strikes that targeted each other’s military infrastructure.

Both sides also exchanged small arms and artillery fire along the Line of Control, causing civilian casualties.

A ceasefire was announced on 10 May, and despite some accusations of violations by both sides in the first 24 hours, at the time of writing that ceasefire appears to be holding.

However, neither side has withdrawn the other measures such as suspending key agreements and trade with each other, and the situation remains tense.

International reaction to the conflict

The UK condemned the Pahalgam terrorist attack, and from the start of the crisis the UK has called for restraint from both sides.

The government reiterated the UK’s longstanding position that the dispute over Kashmir is bilateral and can only be solved through negotiations by both sides, taking into account the wishes of the Kashmiri people. The UK was reported to have been involved in the discussions between India and Pakistan that led to the ceasefire.

Some have said the United States reacted slowly to the crisis, but it was also reportedly the key broker in arranging the ceasefire. The US has said both sides have agreed to further talks on other wider issues, but India has disputed this and questioned the significance of the US’s role in ending the crisis.

Analysis of the confrontation

Analysts have pointed out that the underlying reasons for the conflict – India’s view that Pakistan supports terrorist groups in the region, and Pakistan’s view that India’s actions in Indian-administered Kashmir are the cause of unrest – are not solved by the ceasefire. Nor is either side closer to agreeing over the sovereignty of Kashmir, or its future status.

Observers agree that this conflict escalated more quickly than previous ones over Kashmir, and that this is concerning especially as India and Pakistan both possess nuclear weapons.

India wishes to keep any talks over Kashmir bilateral, without international mediation, and to focus on the issue of terrorism, and the status of the territory controlled by Pakistan, that it claims sovereignty over. Pakistan welcomes international mediation and wants to focus attention on India’s administration of the territory it controls.