Poland: The Tusk government and the 2025 presidential election

Presidential elections were held in Poland in May and June 2025, with a candidate backed by the main opposition Law and Justice Party (PiS), Karol Nawrocki defeating the main government-backed candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski of Civic Platform (PO) in the second-round run-off.

The election was viewed as critical by the Polish government, led by Donald Tusk since the end of 2023, given the scope Poland’s constitution gives to the president to block the government’s agenda. This includes the power to veto legislation. This can only be overturned by a three-fifths majority in the lower house of parliament, the Sejm. The Tusk government does not command such a majority. The president can also refer legislation to the constitutional tribunal, for a ruling as to its conformity with the constitution.   

The outgoing President, Andrzej Duda, was an ally of the previous PiS government and used these powers to block elements of the Tusk government’s programme.

The PiS Government, 2015-2023

The PiS government from 2015 to 2023 implemented a series of controversial judicial reforms, leading the European Commission to launch several legal actions against Poland, citing concerns about the establishment of political control over the judiciary and the “rule of law” in the country. The Commission also launched a procedure to determine whether Poland was in breach of core EU values. Some EU funding to Poland was also blocked and made conditional on implementing further judicial reforms to address EU concerns. Critics of the government complained that it had adopted illiberal and authoritarian practices, also involving control of the media.

Following a constitutional tribunal ruling in 2020, the government confirmed a near total ban on abortion in Poland. PiS leaders also engaged in anti-LGBT+ rhetoric, with “LGBT-free zones” established in several municipalities.

Tusk government since 2023

While remaining the largest party in the Sejm, PiS lost power following the October 2023 parliamentary election to a coalition led by Tusk (previously prime minister from 2007 to 2014), and composed of three political groupings: Civic Coalition, bringing together Tusk’s liberal conservative Civic Platform and other allied parties; the centrist/centre-right Third Way coalition; and the Left alliance.

The Tusk government clashed with President Duda in its first month of office over its decision to remove the leadership of state broadcasters and the President’s shielding and eventual pardoning of former PiS ministers convicted of abuse of office.

In February 2024, the government presented an action plan to the EU on restoring the rule of law in Poland, involving actions to restore judicial independence. The European Commission then confirmed that the EU would be unblocking funding allocated to Poland. It also said it was closing the procedure to determine a potential breach of EU values by Poland.

Government legislation to implement elements of the government’s judicial reform programme was subsequently passed by the Sejm but then referred by the president to the constitutional tribunal. This included legislation aimed at reforming the tribunal itself. The tribunal is viewed as aligned with the former PiS government and likely to hold up legislation. The President also referred to the tribunal legislation to reverse the law adopted under the PiS government providing for the body responsible for nominating judges to be appointed by parliament rather than selected by judges.

President Duda also vetoed legislation to allow pharmacies to provide over-the-counter access to the morning-after pill for girls and women aged 15 and over, and said he would veto legislation to decriminalise the act of helping a woman obtain an abortion. This legislation was in any case blocked when one of the governing parties voted against it. In March 2025, the president also referred legislation that would extend hate speech laws to cover sexual orientation, sex/gender, age and disability to the constitutional tribunal.

Some commentators have noted continuity between the Tusk government and its predecessor on migration policy, with further reinforcement of the border with Belarus and legislation to permit the suspension of asylum rights, and an insistence that Poland will not implement EU migration pact solidarity mechanisms that could involve hosting of asylum seekers relocated from other EU member states. 

The Tusk government has continued Poland’s strong support for Ukraine, announcing a new Poland-Ukraine security agreement in July 2024. The government has also increased defence spending to 4.1% of GDP (the highest in NATO), and supported EU initiatives to increase EU defence capacity.

Presidential election 2025

Having served two presidential terms, President Duda was not permitted by the constitution to stand for election again.  Rafal Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw and the defeated candidate in the 2020 presidential election second round, won a primary to be the Civic Coalition candidate. Karol Nawrocki, president of the Institute of National Remembrance, stood as an independent candidate with the backing of PiS. There were also candidates from other governing parties, and from parties viewed as on the “far right”.

Opinion polls in early 2025 indicated that Trzaskowski was the leading candidate and well ahead of Nawrocki. However, polls began to narrow closer to the first round on 18 May.

Opposition parties presented the election as a referendum on Tusk’s government, while Trzaskowski presented it as an opportunity to unblock the political system, pledging to sign off judicial reforms. Nawrocki presented himself as a supporter of US President Donald Trump, with Trump later describing him as an ally. He also indicated he would not support Ukraine’s accession to NATO or the EU, and proposed a law giving Poles priority access to medical treatment, school places and social benefits

The first round of the election saw Trzaskowski in the lead with 31.4% of the votes cast, narrowly ahead of Nawrocki in second place with 29.5%. Candidates described as “far right” came third and fourth, with the potential second round votes of their voters seen as crucial to its outcome.

Ahead of the second round, Nawrocki pledged support for a set of demands issued by the third placed candidate, Sławomir Mentzen. These included protecting “freedom of expression”, opposing laws restricting access to firearms, not allowing Polish soldiers to be sent to Ukraine, and rejecting Ukraine’s accession to NATO and transfer of competences to the EU.

Nawrocki emerged victorious in the second round and was elected president with 50.9% of the vote to Trzaskowski’s 49.1%. Nawrocki’s victory was attributed by commentators to his stronger appeal to conservative voters, the unpopularity of the Tusk government, and the perception he was stronger on national security matters.

The election result was viewed as likely to prolong deadlock between the government and the presidency, making it unlikely that the government would be able to take forward its judicial reform agenda or legislation on issues such as abortion or same-sex partnerships.

Following the presidential election result, the government won a confidence vote in the Sejm, called by Tusk to demonstrate his government still had a mandate. Nawrocki indicated he would take a tough stance in relation to the government’s judicial reforms and said Tusk was “a liar” who had “spread disinformation” about him during the election campaign. He also said Poland should continue to support Ukraine and emphasised the threat posed by Russia.

After complaints of irregularities at some polling stations, the Supreme Court confirmed the result on 1 July saying these were not significant enough to affect the result. Nawrocki will be sworn in as president by a joint session of the Sejm and Senate on 6 August 2025.