Economic Indicators, October 2015

This month’s developments

Growth and output

GDP grew by 0.7% in Q2 2015 compared to Q1.

Changes to methods and data were made ahead of the publication of the 2015 Blue Book, this has led to some significant revisions to estimated GDP.

Annual GDP was estimated to have increased by 2.9% in 2014, compared with 2013. Following the revisions, this is 0.1 percentage points lower than what was previously estimated.

Prices and wages

UK inflation remains low, the CPI inflation rate was 0.0%, down from 0.1% in July.

In the three months to July 2015, total and regular pay for employees increased by 2.9% on the previous year.

Retail sales

Retail sales grew by 0.3% over the three months to August – the 30th successive period of growth. This is the longest period of sustained growth since consistent records began in June 1996.

Slowdown in emerging markets

According to the OECD, global growth prospects have weakened. Emerging markets in particular have vulnerabilities that could be exposed by rising interest rates in the US or a slowdown in China. This could lead to “financial and economic turbulence that could also exert a significant drag on advanced economies”.

The IMF have also said that these threats could jeopardise recent economic gains in Asia, Latin America and Asia.