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Russia’s new nuclear doctrine

In November 2024 President Putin approved a new nuclear doctrine for the Russian Federation. It updated and replaced the Basic Principles of State Policy in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence that had been published, for the first time, in June 2020.

Although seemingly announced in response to the US administration authorising Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range missiles against military targets in Russia, the main changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine had already been outlined by President Putin in a meeting of the Russian Security Council in September 2024.

In line with the previous doctrine, the new document does not advocate “first use” in a nuclear scenario. Yet it does not rule out first use in response to a conventional attack under certain circumstances either. Significantly:

  • The new doctrine officially brings Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella.
  • In changes to previous doctrine, the use of nuclear weapons would be justified against conventional aggression that poses a critical threat to Russian/Belarusian sovereignty and/or territorial integrity, as opposed to the very “existence of the state”.
  • An aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state with the participation, or support, of a nuclear state, would also be regarded as a joint attack on the Russian Federation

In 2023 Russia suspended participation in the bilateral New START agreement with the United States and de-ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, citing US and NATO provocations.

Russia’s nuclear arsenal

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, with a stockpile estimated at 5,580 warheads, of which 4,380 are operational (strategic, non-strategic and reserve).

Russia’s large arsenal of 1,558 non-strategic/tactical warheads are not currently subject to any arms control limitations.

Forces are organised on the nuclear triad principle (capable of being launched from land, air and sea). Russia does not operate a policy of continuous at-sea deterrence but patrols periodically.

Since 2008, Russia has been extensively modernising its nuclear capabilities. In 2018 President Putin outlined a number of new nuclear weapons capabilities that are intended to counter US missile defence systems. These include hypersonic missiles and glide vehicles, a nuclear-powered torpedo and a nuclear-powered cruise missile. In December 2023 the Russian Ministry of Defense said that modern weapons systems comprised 95% of its nuclear inventory.

This paper is intended as an introduction to Russia’s nuclear weapons policies and programmes. It is part of a series of country profiles which are available on the House of Commons Library website.


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