Political situation in Burma

In elections in November 2015 the National League for Democracy (NLD) won an unexpectedly overwhelming victory, performing well even in Myanmar’s ethnic states. The NLD took 79% of the elected seats in parliament and has a majority in both the lower and upper houses.

The NLD seriously explored ways for Aung San Suu Kyi to become president, but abandoned the attempt, accepting that the constitutional provision prohibiting Myanmar nationals with foreign marital ties from standing for the presidency could not be changed before the presidential vote in parliament. U Htin Kyaw, an old friend of Aung San Suu Kyi, was elected president on 15 March 2016. He is the first civilian president of Myanmar in over 50 years. Another NLD stalwart is a vice-president, but the other is a former general, Myint Shwe, whose reformist credentials are low and who remains a designated individual under US sanctions against Myanmar. The NLD take powers on 1 April.

Under the current Constitution, key ministries – home affairs, defence and border affairs – must be filled by army representatives. The NLD has been fairly pragmatic with regard to the military and its political representatives. Managing high expectations and maintaining party discipline will be a major challenges for the NLD. Economic growth has been 7% a year since 2011, which it will need to sustain, while doing more to ensure that this growth is inclusive. There is also a risk that, if it challenges military interests too directly, army hardliners will try to destabilise the NLD government.