The Arab Uprisings

Since December 2010, the most profound process of change has affected the countries of the Arab world. The change spread quickly between the countries of the region, underlining the many common factors that provoked unrest. How the region’s revolutions progress, however, depends on the individual characteristics of each country, which are very different. This paper looks at these similarities and differences and considers the possible outcomes in each case. The legitimacy of ruling regimes, the effect of societies’ divisions along confessional lines and the role of the region’s militaries are considered.

Separately, the prospects for tendencies such as political Islam and violent jihadis are considered. The possible ramifications of the Arab unrest on relations with other countries in the region, such as Turkey, Israel and Iran are also discussed as are the military balance, and defence expenditure and relationships in the region. The immediate and short-term outlook for the region’s economies, which will have such an impact on the outcome of the revolutions, is discussed.

Lastly, the paper looks at US, EU and UK policies towards the region and presents some views on how they should evolve.