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GDP fell by an estimated 0.2% in July-September 2022 (Quarter 3 2022) compared to the previous three-month period (April-June) and by 0.6% in September compared to August. This followed a fall of 0.1% in August.

The services sector was flat in Quarter 3, while production fell by 1.5%. Construction grew by 0.6%, but this was a slowdown from the previous quarter.

The fall in September was partly attributed to the Queen’s funeral with services falling by 0.8% in this month. There was growth in the other main sectors: by 0.2% in production and 0.4% in construction.

In cash terms, GDP was £2,277 billion in 2021.

Forecasts

In their November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast was 4.2% in 2022 and -1.4% in 2023.

The Treasury’s November 2022 survey of independent forecasts showed an average forecast of 4.2% for 2022 and -0.9% for 2023.


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