UK Gross Domestic Product: Regularly updated data on growth and forecasts.

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This document focusses on standard official sources. For further data on the economy, see the Library briefing Coronavirus: Latest economic data.

Economic growth fell by 2.0% in January-March 2020 compared to the previous quarter (October-December). This was the largest fall since 2008.

All the headline sectors contributed to the fall in GDP growth in January-March. The services sector fell by 1.9%, production by 2.1% and construction by 2.6%.

Looking at month-on-month growth, GDP was down 5.8% in March, the biggest fall since records began in 1997. (Monthly figures are more volatile than quarterly estimates.)

In cash terms, GDP was £2,215 billion in 2019.

Forecasts

At the March 2020 Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast growth of 1.1% for 2020 and 1.8% for 2021. These forecasts do not take into account the full expected impact of the Coronavirus economic shut down. The OBR has subsequently published a “reference scenario” with forecasts of -12.8% for 2020 and 17.9% for 2021. The OBR’s scenario assumes that the economy is largely shut down for three months and then progressively returns to normal over the following three months, with no lasting economic hit.

The Treasury’s May 2020 survey of independent forecasts for GDP growth showed an average forecast of -8.6% for 2020 and 6.2% for 2021. These are based on forecasts from 1 May to 18 May.

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