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UK GDP grew by 2.1% in August 2020 compared to June, the fourth consecutive monthly increase following April’s 19.5% decline. Despite this, August GDP was 9.2% below the pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020.

GDP grew by 8.0% in June-August 2020 compared to the previous three-month period (March-May).

All the headline sectors provided a positive contribution to three-month growth in June-August. The services sector grew by 7.1%, production by 9.3% and construction by 18.5%. However, output in all of these sectors remain lower than in February, by 9.6% in services, 6.0% in production and 10.8% in construction.

The economy declined by 19.8% in the latest calendar quarter (April-June 2020). This was revised down from the initial estimate of a 20.4% fall, but still represents the biggest fall in quarterly GDP on record.

In cash terms, GDP was £2,216 billion in 2019.

Forecasts

In their July Fiscal sustainability report, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast a fall in growth in 2020 of between 10.6% and 14.3%.

The Treasury’s October 2020 survey of independent forecasts for GDP growth showed an average forecast of -10.2% for 2020 and 6.3% for 2021.


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