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GDP grew by 3.6% in March-May 2021 compared to the previous three-month period (December-February), and grew by 0.8% in May 2021 compared to April. This was the fourth consecutive month of growth. However, April GDP remained 3.1% below pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

In the latest calendar quarter (January-March 2021), GDP fell by 1.6% compared to the previous quarter.

The services sector grew by 0.9% in May, and the production sector grew by 0.8% but the construction sector fell by 0.8%. Both services and production remain below pre-pandemic February 2020 levels, by 3.4% for services and 2.6% for production. Construction was 0.3% above its February 2020 level.

In cash terms, GDP was £2,112 billion in 2020.

Forecasts

In their March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast was 4.0% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

The Treasury’s July 2021 survey of independent forecasts showed an average forecast of 7.1% for 2021 and 5.4% for 2022.


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