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In Q2 2021, UK GDP grew by 5.5%, as lockdown restrictions were eased, compared with the previous quarter (Q1 2021). Eurozone GDP increased by 2.2%, while US GDP grew by 1.6%.

Compared to pre-pandemic peak levels, GDP in Q2 2021 was 3.3% lower in the UK (the same as in Germany and France), 2.5% lower in the Eurozone as a whole and 0.9% higher in the US.

G7 GDP compared with before pandemic

Please note that headline GDP growth figures across countries are not 100% comparable. For example, the UK takes a different approach than its peers in calculating output in the education and health sectors. This has resulted in the UK’s GDP growth figures during the Covid-19 outbreak to be lower compared with other G7 economies than they otherwise would have been (this effect will unwind during the recovery).

Forecasts

The IMF, in its latest report on the global economy (published 12 October), lowered slightly its UK 2021 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 7.0% at its previous July forecast. The UK is still forecast to see the fastest growth in the G7 this year, after seeing the largest fall in GDP in 2020.

IMF 2021 GDP growth forecast for G7 countries

In its latest report on the global economy, published 21 September, the OECD lowered its forecasts for UK GDP growth to 6.7% in 2021, from 7.2% at its previous May forecast. The UK is still forecast to see the fastest growth in the G7 this year, after seeing the largest fall in GDP in 2020.

OECD latest G7 GDP growth forecasts for 2021


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