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Latest GDP data

In Q4 2022, UK GDP was unchanged compared with the previous quarter (Q3 2022). Eurozone similarly recorded no growth, with GDP in Germany down by 0.4%, while France saw growth of 0.1%. US GDP growth was 0.7%.

Latest GDP data for G7 economies 

GDP growth in recent years

Compared to the pre-pandemic level, UK GDP in Q4 2022 was 0.8% lower. This compares with Eurozone GDP being 2.4% higher than its pre-pandemic level, while US GDP was 5.1% higher.

GDP of G7 economies in Q4 2022 compared with pre pandemic level of Q4 2019

For 2022 as a whole, UK GDP growth was 4.0%. This figure compares GDP in all of 2022, with all of 2021. The relatively strong rate of growth in 2022 is mostly a result of the continued recovery from pandemic-related weakness in early 2021. (GDP growth over the course of 2022 in the UK was essentially flat.)

The UK had the largest decline in GDP among the G7 in 2020 (-11.0%) the first year of the pandemic and its relatively strong performances in 2021 (+7.6%) and 2022 (+4.0%) were largely a recovery from the weakness in 2020 and early 2021.

Please note that headline GDP growth figures across countries during the pandemic are not 100% comparable. For example, the UK takes a different approach to others in calculating output in the education and health sectors. This resulted in the UK’s GDP growth figures being lower in 2020, and higher in 2021 and 2022 (as this pandemic-related measurement effect unwound), compared with other G7 economies than they otherwise would have been.

IMF and OECD forecasts

On 31 January, the IMF published new forecasts for the world economy. These are “less gloomy” than its previous forecasts made in October, reflecting resilient growth in the second half of 2022 and China’s re-opening from severe pandemic restrictions. The IMF forecasts UK GDP growth of -0.6% in 2023, the lowest in the G7. 

IMF forecasts for GDP growth in 2023 for G7 countries

On 22 November, the OECD published new forecasts for the world economy. The OECD observed the “massive energy price shock” is taking a “heavy toll on the world economy”. The OECD forecasts UK GDP growth of -0.4% for 2023, the lowest in the G7, just below Germany (-0.3%).

OECD G7 GDP growth forecasts for 2023

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