GDP – International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators

Latest GDP data

In Q3 2023, UK GDP was unchanged compared with the previous quarter (Q2 2023). Eurozone GDP fell by 0.1%, with German GDP also falling by 0.1%. In the US, GDP grew by 1.2% over the quarter. 

GDP growth in recent years

UK GDP in Q3 2023 was 1.8% higher compared to the pre-pandemic level of Q4 2019. This compares with Eurozone GDP being 3.0% higher, with GDP in France up by 1.8% and in Germany up by 0.3%. The other G7 economies had higher growth than the UK over this period, including the US where GDP was 7.4% higher.

UK GDP data was recently revised by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS revised up GDP growth in 2020 and 2021 due to additional information becoming avaiable, including on the costs firms faced in the pandemic.

As a result, the UK’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic was stronger than previously thought. Before the revisions, UK GDP was 0.2% lower in Q2 2023 compared to its pre-pandemic level of Q4 2019. It is now estimated to be 1.8% higher.

Other countries, including Spain and Italy, have also revised up their GDP estimates for recent years, with more likely to do so in future.

OECD and IMF forecasts

On 29 November, the OECD published updated forecasts for the world economy. The OECD said that global growth had been stronger than expected in 2023 but that growth will remain modest in 2024 and 2025. The OECD forecasts UK GDP to grow by 0.5% in 2023 (up from 0.3% in its previous forecast) and by 0.7% in 2024 (down from 0.8%).

On 10 October, the IMF published updated forecasts for the world economy. The IMF said that global growth had been more resilient in the first half of 2023 than it had expected, but the medium-term outlook was subdued. The IMF forecasts UK GDP to grow by 0.5% in 2023 (up from 0.4% in its previous forecast) and by 0.6% in 2024 (down from 1.0%).