China: new political directions under a new leadership?

A new Chinese leadership is about to take power at the National People’s Congress, which begins on 5 March. Xi Jinping will take on the role of President, while Li Keqiang will become Premier. It has been a long trailed succession, although it was thrown into some doubt for a while in 2012 following the downfall of Bo Xilai, the charismatic party chief in Chongqing Region. But the November 2012 Party Congress, at which Xi Jinping became the General Secretary of the Communist Party, confirmed that initial predictions were right. Commentators are now focused on whether, and if so, how, Xi and Li will change China’s political course. Early signals suggest that more effectively combating official corruption and reducing social inequalities will be top priorities. Xi has also suggested that the Party should accept greater public scrutiny and criticism. Nobody expects the new leadership suddenly to embrace Western-style democracy, but some do detect hopeful signs in the spheres of political reform and human rights. Others are more sceptical, pointing to examples of ongoing repression. Overall, efforts to go beyond the ‘muddling through’ which arguably characterised the decade in power of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao can be expected. But whether these efforts will be part of a coherent and sustained domestic reform programme that can meet China’s many challenges is much more uncertain.