In brief: the latest crises in Bosnia

The fragile unity of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina is looking ever more precarious. Its complex political structures are designed to prevent the majority from taking decisions that adversely affect other groups, not to produce strong government. Hitherto the system had functioned to a certain extent through the international High Representative exercising his extensive powers; but this role is intended to be temporary, and for many Bosnians its authority and perceived legitimacy have diminished significantly. With both Serb and Croat parties increasingly challenging the legitimacy of Bosnia’s central institutions, the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement which ended Bosnia’s 1992-95 war no longer seems capable of containing the pressures of the deeply divided country. Although analysts generally agree that a return to violence is unlikely, dissolution remains a possibility.