North Korea’s dynastic succession

On 17 December 2011, North Korea’s ‘Dear Leader’, Kim Jong-Il, died. His death had long been posited as a moment of great potential danger and uncertainty, both for North Korea and the wider region. However, the succession of his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un has proceeded remarkably smoothly up to now. Following Kim Jong-Il’s funeral on 28 December, Kim Jong-Un has been declared the “supreme leader of the party, state and army”. The message to a nervous outside world so far has been unity, stability and continuity. However, the transition will be prolonged and there could yet be political turbulence. Kim Jong-Un may be tempted to engage in a provocative act towards South Korea or the rest of the world in order to show his mettle. A third nuclear weapon test would be the most dramatic act of provocation. Perhaps the greatest threat to the regime’s survival comes from the country’s protracted and deep economic crisis. North Korea has experienced acute food shortages over the last year and international aid has not filled the gap.