Syria: What is the situation five months after Assad’s fall?

Philip Loft

May 2025 marks over five months since Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in power since 2000, fled the country for Russia.

In December 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a UN-designated terrorist group that previously governed Idlib in northwest Syria, captured the Syrian capital, Damascus, and declared a transitional government.

The transitional government was replaced in April 2025, and a new constitutional declaration was also issued. While HTS has been dissolved, its members retain significant leadership positions.

Humanitarian needs in Syria remain high. Around 16.5 million people require humanitarian support and a further 6.2 million people remain refugees in neighbouring states.

This Insight looks at the current state of Syria and international reaction to the newly declared government.

A new government and constitution

In April 2025, the leader of HTS and declared interim President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, announced a new government and constitutional declaration.

The new Syrian Government includes one member from each of the Kurdish, Druze, Alawite and Christian minority communities in the 23-strong cabinet, as well as one woman. Key roles such as defence are retained by HTS members. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls much of north-eastern Syria and is an international partner against Islamic State/Daesh, is not represented. Ahmed al-Sharaa holds the presidency.

The constitutional declaration will be in place for five years, at which point elections are planned. The president will appoint a third of the legislature in the meantime, with other members selected by a committee also appointed by the president. The non-governmental organisation Human Rights Watch warns that the constitutional declaration “risks consolidating executive control”.

The constitutional declaration describes Islam as the “main source of legislation”. The declaration protects some faith and belief groups, preserves the position of women “within the family and society”, and guarantees the right of women and girls to work and education. The Lebanon-based Carnegie Middle East Center think tank notes that under the declaration, Syria will implement “all rights” in the international treaties it has signed, which include a wide range of social and political rights.

Kurdish authorities in Syria have called for greater decentralisation and argue that the constitution “obstructs” a democratic transition. The SDF has agreed with President Sharaa to integrate into a single Syrian army, though the timescale for this is end of 2025.

The UK Government “welcome[s] the provisions made in the constitutional declaration on freedom of expression, freedom of belief and women’s rights”.

Continuing violence and concerns for minority groups

While Islamic State/Daesh activity is low, in 2025 some fighting continued between the SDF and Turkey-backed groups in northern Syria. Some commentators have argued that Turkey is the major regional beneficiary of Bashar al-Assad’s fall. Turkey is aiming to contain Kurdish groups across Syria, Turkey and Iraq.

There have also been incidents of violence targeting Alawites (closely associated with Assad, who is an Alawite) and violence targeting Druze communities.

President Sharaa says he will act to protect minorities and has announced an investigation into the killing of Alawite civilians in March 2025. The declared Syrian Government disputes criticisms made in an Amnesty International report which discusses the potential involvement of government-affiliated forces in the killings and the government’s response to the violence.

Israel has occupied parts of southern Syria around the Golan Heights for an “unlimited amount of time” and says no forces of the declared Syrian Government should enter the region. Israel has also conducted air strikes targeting military facilities of the Assad government and air strikes against groups it says are targeting Druze communities.

Analysts note that Israel may be aiming to maintain a divided Syria, through supporting minority communities, to capitalise on the loss for Iran of its ally in Assad. The Israeli Government says that the threat from Syria has “intensified” since Assad’s fall.

The UK Government has called for full investigations into sectarian violence, for Israel to “refrain from actions that could risk destabilising Syria” and for Israel’s presence in Golan to be “temporary”.

Lessening of UK and EU sanctions

The UK Government and the European Union have both welcomed the declaration of a new Syrian Government and its commitment to elections and the rights of minorities.

The European Union (in February 2025) and the UK (in March 2025 and April 2025, including an amending statutory instrument) have lessened some sanctions, with a focus on energy, reconstruction and finance. The lessening of sanctions also includes the defence and interior ministries, which were involved in political repression under the Assad government.

The Shadow Foreign Secretary, Dame Priti Patel, has said the UK should apply conditions to the removal of sanctions on Syria.

The UK Government says that all sanctions decisions remain under review and HTS remains a proscribed terrorist group. The government says proscription does not stop it talking to HTS regarding a political transition.

While Germany and France have reopened their embassies in Syria, the UK has not, although the UK Government has met Syria’s new leaders. The UK envoy is assessing the local situation to determine next steps.

US forces and conditions for sanctions relief

Before taking office in 2025, in December 2024, US President Donald Trump had said Syria was “not our fight”.

President Trump’s administration has announced a halving of US troop numbers in Syria, to around 1,000, though this is likely the same level as some years under the Biden administration.

US troops are mainly in areas held by the Kurdish-led SDF, which holds many Islamic State/Daesh fighters in detention.

The review and reduction of US aid spending in 2025 also affected the humanitarian response, including for first responders, the Syrian White Helmets.

While US sanctions have an exemption for humanitarian aid, extensive sanctions on finance, energy and trade remain in place. The US has issued conditions for the lessening of sanctions, such as ensuring no foreign fighters hold leadership positions. Negotiations are ongoing.

Foreign policy analysts have argued that the US should work to ensure that Iran cannot recover its “axis of resistance” in Syria and that Russia and China should not gain influence. There are reports that Russia may come to an agreement with the declared government of Syria to keep its military bases in Syria.

Others have argued that the US should encourage Israel to pare down its actions, as a weakened Syria may create a vacuum for Iran and allied armed groups to fill.

A new government and constitution

Continuing violence and concerns for minority groups

Lessening of UK and EU sanctions

US forces and conditions for sanctions relief

Further reading