NATO's Washington summit
The NATO summit in July 2024, the first for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, focused on Ukraine's path to membership and challenges posed by Russia and China.

Global uncertainty poses questions about the international order, democracy, key international relationships, and the UK’s readiness for conflict.
This article is part of the series Research in brief: Quick reads for the 2024 Parliament, produced for new Members of Parliament after the 2024 general election.
The 2024 Parliament will face a world that the UK’s Chief of Defence Staff has said is “undeniably becoming much more dangerous” and where the “international order is being tested”. This changing world poses questions about the international order, democracy, key international relationships, and the UK’s readiness for conflict.
Recent government reviews of defence, security and foreign policy have predicted a more contested and competitive world. They describe Russia as the “the most acute threat” to UK security, highlight China’s growing assertiveness, and note that the UK is now in a “period of heightened risk and volatility” that is likely to stretch into the 2030s.
In its May 2024 report, Three priorities for the next UK Government, the think tank Chatham House says the government will “confront a world with a more assertive Global South… and a more influential and activist range of other mid-size powers”.
The Library Insight What is the Global South? explains what this term means and why its use is contentious. The growing division in the international order between major powers over the rules, values and use of international institutions such as the United Nations, which has its 80th anniversary in 2025, have been visible in responses to recent crises.
2024 has been described as a historic election year, with more than 2 billion voters going to the polls internationally. However, studies have pointed to a decline in the number of fully democratic countries in the world in recent years. Notably, a series of coups have undermined democracy in Africa.
The UK Government has conducted at least one review of its defence policy in every decade since the Second World War. Recent iterations have broadened beyond purely defence considerations and now reflect the government’s assessment of national security, outline the core values of its foreign policy and set out an overarching strategy to guide international and domestic policy.
In 2021 the government published the integrated review of security, defence, development, and foreign policy. The unforeseen pace of geopolitical change, however, necessitated a refresh of that strategy in 2023.
2023 was described as “one of the most violent years since the end of the Cold War” by the Peace Research Institute Oslo. The World Bank estimates that by 2030 up to two thirds of the world’s extreme poor will live in fragile and conflict-affected countries. Here we focus on two regions in which the UK is actively involved diplomatically and militarily.
The conflict in Ukraine is in its third year. Amid recent debates in the US and Europe over the level and speed of support to Ukraine, Russia has made tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, opened up a new front along the northeastern border and continues to target Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Russia has frequently used the threat of nuclear weapons to pressurise the West over its support for Ukraine. Both sides continue to call for a decisive victory and have said they will only accept peace on their own terms.
In a sign that Russia is planning for a long war in Ukraine, it has placed its economy on a war footing, increased defence spending to almost 40% of government expenditure and appointed a former economist as its new Defence Minister.
NATO has described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades, shattering peace in Europe”. It has increased its military presence in eastern Europe, adopted new defence plans and admitted Finland and Sweden as member states. An increasing number of allies is also meeting NATO’s 2% of GDP benchmark for defence spending.
Some have expressed concern about Russian influence in the breakaway regions of Georgia and Moldova and in the Western Balkans, because of the prospect of greater Russian involvement should it achieve its goals in Ukraine. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosnian Serb leaders retain close ties with Russia, and have made moves for secession which could lead to the unravelling of the 1995 peace agreement.
How the UK and its allies continue to respond to an emboldened Russia and ensure strategic success in Ukraine is considered vital for longer-term Euro-Atlantic security.
US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has described the situation in the Middle East after the 7 October Hamas assault on Israel and start of Israeli operations in Gaza as the most “dangerous” since the Fourth Arab-Israeli War of 1973.
UK political parties have called for a ceasefire in Gaza, the immediate release of hostages taken from Israel, and the ramping up of aid. In 2023/24, the government provided over £100 million in aid to the Occupied Palestinian Territories. Scrutiny of UK arms exports to Israel continues: exports are ongoing following government reviews under the UK’s arms export criteria.
The UK Government has long supported a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, though debate continues on when best to recognise a Palestinian state to support the peace process.
Since October 2023, Iran-supported Hezbollah in Lebanon has also been exchanging fire with Israeli Defence Forces, displacing both Israelis and Lebanese, while Shia militias in Syria and Iraq (also supported by Iran) have been launching attacks against US and some UK forces.
UK forces are also combatting attacks from the Houthis on Red Sea shipping, and in April the RAF supported Israel’s defence during an Iranian attack, which Iran said was in response to an attack on its Syrian consulate.
The UK Government has sought to contain Iran’s support for armed and terrorist groups through sanctions and arms embargoes, with a new sanction regime to target Iranian activities abroad introduced in December 2023.
Many parliamentarians have called for the proscription of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which, in addition to maintaining a 190,000-strong force in Iran, supports armed groups abroad. The group is currently subject to sanctions which impose travel bans and asset freezes, but proscription would also make it an offence to join the group or address a meeting. Iran has warned it would interpret designation of the corps as a terrorist group as a “serious escalation”.
The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Iran is also continuing to stockpile enriched uranium. Talks to restore the nuclear agreement to curtail Iran’s nuclear programme, which the US left in 2018, have stalled since 2022.
The UN has said that in 2024 more than one in five children are living in, or fleeing from, conflict and that nearly 300 million people worldwide will need humanitarian assistance. This includes 30 million in what has been described as a “forgotten war” in Sudan. The year-long conflict has, according to the UN, resulted in the displacement of over 9 million people.
Acute food insecurity also currently affects 258 million worldwide (including the entire population of Gaza, UN agencies report).
Globally, the UN also judges a lack of progress on many of the 2030 sustainable development goals.
Since 2020, UK aid spending has stood at 0.5% of gross national income. Both Labour and the Conservatives have said they want it to be restored to 0.7%, as was the case from 2013, when economic circumstances allow. The government is also required by law to use aid to reduce poverty and gender inequality.
The 2024 Parliament will face an international landscape described by Chatham House as “more challenging than ever”.
While the outcome of the US presidential election is likely to affect UK foreign policy, it is currently unclear what and how significant this will be. This section explores two other key relationships that will influence UK foreign policy over the next five years.
Despite earlier UK–EU commitments to negotiate a new security partnership involving foreign policy and defence cooperation, this was not included in the UK–EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) agreed in late 2020. However, the conflict in Ukraine prompted renewed UK–EU cooperation on foreign policy including coordination of sanctions on Russia.
The 2024 Parliament might revisit a potential framework for UK–EU security cooperation, while the volume of UK–EU trade, EU regulatory influence and irregular migration are among factors that may lead to discussion of new cooperation arrangements in other areas.
The TCA itself has several review clauses and transitional provisions, including a requirement for a general review of implementation in 2026 which could provide a focus for these discussions of improvements or changes to the agreement. Other transitional arrangements in the TCA, notably on energy cooperation and fisheries access, will also end in 2026 and will need to be revisited.
The implementation of the UK–EU Withdrawal Agreement, and specifically the Northern Ireland Protocol, has been a major point of contention in UK–EU relations. Although UK–EU differences appeared to be addressed by the Windsor Framework agreement in early 2023, how the framework is implemented will remain an important factor shaping UK–EU relations and the politics of Northern Ireland.
According to Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee’s July 2023 report on China, the country is seeking to “reshape international systems and values in line with its own interests and to be seen as a strong and dominant global power”.
Relations between China and the UK have sharply deteriorated from what the then Chancellor George Osborne called the ‘golden era’, between 2015 and 2017.
The Integrated Review 2023 described an “epoch-defining and systemic challenge” posed by China under the Chinese Communist Party. However, it also called for the UK to engage with China, directly as well as in international forums, to “leave room for open, constructive and predictable relations”.
Significant sources of tension between the UK and China include human rights concerns over China’s treatment of its Muslim Uyghur population, the erosion of the “one country, two systems” status quo in Hong Kong, the threat of espionage and influence operations by China in the UK, and China’s increasingly assertive actions in the South China Sea, including against Taiwan. Deepening ties between UK and Taiwan have frustrated China also.
The UK’s policy towards China will be influenced by the United States. Regardless of who wins the US presidential election, the US is expected to continue its protectionist trade policies concerning China, restricting China’s access to key technologies, and increasing its military and political support to Taiwan.
The conflict in Ukraine has led many in the UK and Europe to question the continent’s readiness for war with Russia.
NATO has been revitalised, the EU has reprioritised defence issues and allies have been prompted to reconsider their defence postures, capabilities and levels of spending. However, the conflict in Ukraine has also highlighted issues with industrial production, military stockpiles, equipment shortfalls, readiness, and manpower levels, with several countries urging allies to re-examine their approaches to national service.
Questions have been asked, including from the Defence Select Committee, about the readiness and size of the UK armed forces and the ability to sustain, or increase, the current tempo of operational commitments.
The Integrated Review 2023 was prompted by this rapid change in the security environment. The government increased UK defence spending and has committed to increase industrial production and boost equipment stockpiles.
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) is investing in emerging and disruptive technologies such as cyber, artificial intelligence and directed energy weapons (such as laser weapons) and has embarked on a significant shipbuilding programme. The AUKUS partnership between the UK, Australia and the US is a key driver in these areas. The MOD has also committed to replacing the UK’s nuclear deterrent from the early 2030s.
Efforts are also underway to address the terms and conditions for armed forces personnel as a means of improving recruitment and retention.
In June 2024, the outgoing Head of the Army General Sir Patrick Sanders was quoted in the Times as saying: “we are unquestionably more ready, but there is more to do”. He has previously supported having some form of national service in the UK.
The increasing deployment of the UK armed forces overseas has also re-ignited the debate about Parliament’s lack of a formal role in approving military action.
Authors: Sarah Barber, Louisa Brooke-Holland, Patrick Butchard, John Curtis, Stefano Fella, Philip Loft and Claire Mills
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The NATO summit in July 2024, the first for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, focused on Ukraine's path to membership and challenges posed by Russia and China.
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