Uncertainty in the UK’s economic forecasts
How does the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts work, and what does this mean for spending policy in the next few years?

How does the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts work, and what does this mean for spending policy in the next few years?
Prices are rising faster than they have for thirty years. How will this affect the rest of the economy?
What is the potential impact on the UK economy from the conflict in Ukraine?
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The UK economy grew above its pre-pandemic size for the first time in November 2021, before Omicron.
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Inflation figures published this month show that prices are rising fast.
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Further increases in prices may lead to slower economic growth as consumers’ purchasing power erodes.
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Economic growth is slowing and the end of the furlough scheme, along with rising inflation, means uncertainty ahead.
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Official employment and unemployment figures show the UK is in a strong position, but furlough scheme is due to end in September.
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While robust GDP growth of around 7% is expected for 2021 as a whole, there are indications that the economic recovery has recently lost some momentum.
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The economy has grown faster than most economists expected.
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Growth figures suggest that the UK economy may recover from the Covid-19 pandemic sooner than expected.
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Forecasts for growth this year have been raised and confidence in the economy among households and businesses has improved.
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This Insight looks at the impact the pandemic continues to have on the economy, and discusses possible signs of recovery.
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The state of the economy heading into 2021 and the prospects for growth over the rest of the year.
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Any economic boost from Covid-19 vaccines is likely to arrive only in 2021.
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