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Research Briefing
Zimbabwe: recent political developments
This note surveys developments since the beginning of 2011, during which time implementation of the 2008 Global Political Agreement has remained painfully limited. Halting progress is being made towards agreement on a new Constitution, but there remains a real possibility that President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF might abandon the negotiations and opt for early elections under the old Constitution, which greatly favours them. Elections are due by June 2013. Zimbabwe's political prospects remain highly uncertain.
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Research Briefing
In Brief: Afghanistan – insider attacks
This note looks at the rising number of insider attacks against ISAF personnel in Afghanistan and the response from ISAF and the Government.
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Research Briefing
Arab uprisings: an update
Two of the three countries that have had elections since the Arab uprisings – Tunisia and Egypt – have seen mainstream and more radical Islamists dominating. In Libya, the third of the three, a pragmatic and relatively secular politician who had been former Prime Minister during the rebellion did well. It is still early to know what these new governments will do.
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Research Briefing
Libya’s General Assembly election 2012
On 7 July 2012, Libya held its first democratic election since 1964. Preliminary results suggest that the former interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril won a landslide victory among seats reserved for party candidates. However, this should not yet be interpreted as a victory for liberals over Islamists. 120 of the 200 seats are reserved for independents and their politics are not yet clear. Mahmoud Jibril has denied that he is a secularist. Nevertheless, it is very different from election results in Egypt and Tunisia, where the parties associated with the Muslim Brotherhood did well.
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Research Briefing
Antarctica: the treaty system and territorial claims
The unique treaty system that protects the Antarctic is constantly updated and sometimes challenged. A current Private Member’s Bill would implement recent changes in the UK.
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Research Briefing
Afghanistan: The Timetable for Security Transition
NATO assumed command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan in August 2003. At its summit in Chicago in May 2012, NATO confirmed ISAF’s mission will end on 31 December 2014. It also mapped out the transition of security for Afghanistan from ISAF to Afghan National Security Forces. Specifically, it set the goal for Afghan forces to be in the lead for security nation-wide by mid-2013.
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Research Briefing
In brief: Guinea-Bissau – has the 12 April coup been overturned or rewarded?
A 12 April coup has provoked renewed political crisis in the West African state of Guinea Bissau. On 20 May there was an ECOWAS-backed deal under which power was ostensibly returned to civilians, but there is concern about its credibility and legitimacy. The crisis is likely to set-back recent efforts to strengthen Guinea-Bissau’s capacity to combat drug-trafficking and thereby shed its reputation as a ‘narco-state’. In a country where there are regular military coups, no president has completed a full term in office since the mid 1990s.
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Research Briefing
In Brief: Ukraine and Euro2012
Ukraine is due to host the Euro2012 football competition jointly with Poland from 8 June to 1 July. Ukraine's human rights record has led to calls for a boycott.
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Research Briefing
Azerbaijan and the Eurovision
After winning the 2011 competition in Düsseldorf, Azerbaijan will be hosting the Eurovision Song Contest from 22 to 26 May 2012 in the capital, Baku, despite calls for a boycott.
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Research Briefing
NATO: The Chicago Summit
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) holds its Heads of State and Government summit in Chicago on 20-21 May 2012. The main themes of the summit are Afghanistan, capabilities and partnerships.
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Research Briefing
How the UK Government deals with EU Business
This Note looks at UK Government and Civil Service structures and culture; what happens at the UK-EU interface, and methods for transposing EU law into UK law.
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Research Briefing
The Syrian Crisis: Update May 2012
On 21 March, the UN Security Council supported a peace plan devised by Kofi Annan that called for a ceasefire, humanitarian access to Syria and the withdrawal of forces from urban areas. All sides declared their willingness to adhere to the plan. The Annan plan is at present the only hope of ending the accelerating violence in Syria, which has now caused more than 9,000 deaths, according to UN estimates.
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Research Briefing
Bangladesh: the International Crimes Tribunal
The Government of Bangladesh has re-established a long dormant International Crimes Tribunal to try people for alleged 'international crimes' committed during the 1971 war of independence. Eight men, all senior figures in opposition parties, currently face trial. While steps have been taken to strengthen the rules of procedure of the Tribunal, there are criticisms that the process still falls short of interntional standards.
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Research Briefing
Madagascar’s political crisis
The continuing political crisis in Madagascar began when Andre Rajoelina successfully ousted the incumbent President, Marc Ravalomana, in March 2009 and installed himself instead, albeit formally as a transitional leader pending elections. The international community considers Rajoelina illegitimate. Regional mediation efforts to return Madagascar to 'constitutional rule' led to a peace deal in September 2011, but implementation remains fraught and the danger reamains that the process could collapse.
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