Will prisons run out of space?

This article is part of the series Research in brief: Quick reads for the 2024 Parliament, produced for new Members of Parliament after the 2024 general election.

The prison population in England and Wales is projected to rise beyond available prison capacity. While new prisons are being built, progress has been slower than expected. Other proposals to reduce pressure on the estate include releasing prisoners early, avoiding short prison sentences and renting space in foreign prisons.

Prison population and capacity

As of March 2024, there were 87,900 people in prison in England and Wales (prisons are a devolved matter to Scotland and Northern Ireland). This was 4% more than in March 2023 and 6% more than in March 2019.

Despite these small fluctuations, and a larger temporary fall during the pandemic, the prison population has been broadly stable at an average of around 85,000 since 2010. Before this it underwent a rapid rise from around 45,000 in 1990 to 65,000 in 2000 and from there to its present level (see chart).

The prison population fell during the pandemic and has been rising again since 2021. This recent rise has been driven by an increase of people on remand, who now make up nearly one-in-five prisoners (16,500 people as of March 2024). Of these, 10,700 were awaiting trial, the highest number of untried prisoners on record.

Since the 1990s, the prison population has been consistently higher than the estate’s Certified Normal Accommodation, the Prison Service’s measure of a “good, decent standard of accommodation”. A higher ‘operational capacity’ is the maximum “taking into account control, security and the proper operation of the planned regime”.

According to the Prison Service’s annual digest statistics, nearly a quarter of prisoners (23%) were sharing cells due to crowding in 2022/23. Over the past two years, operational capacity has been around 1,000 places higher than the prison population, which is a smaller excess than was typical in the past. The Ministry of Justice predicts that by 2027 the prison population will grow to between 95,000 and 114,000, with a central estimate of 105,000. This growth is expected to stem from the clearance of a backlog of cases in the court system and longer sentences.

New prison places and construction delays

The 2020 Spending Review settlement provided the Ministry of Justice with £4 billion to expand prison capacity. This was intended to fund 20,000 new prison places by the mid-2020s, through a mix of building six new prisons and expanding and refurbishing the existing estate. To date, around 5,900 of these prison places are operational.

New prisons are complex capital projects, requiring planning permission and relying on a construction industry impacted by inflation, with delivery costs affected by market-led price increases.

Planning permission has proved challenging, with three sites (in Lancashire, Leicestershire and Buckinghamshire) initially refused permission. While some early planning obstacles have been surmounted, these delays, coupled with challenging market conditions, mean the mid-2020s target is unlikely to be hit.

When the Justice Committee asked in February 2024 whether the target of 20,000 places would be reached by 2025, the Prisons Minister, Edward Argar said “I do not anticipate that happening”.

Reducing pressure on the prison estate

Alongside building new prisons, some prisoners have been allowed to leave prison early. The government has also explored other possibilities, such as instructing judges to avoid issuing short prison sentences.

In some cases, the lack of prison capacity has led to the government using contingency powers – Operation Safeguard – to hold adult male prisoners in police cells.

Releasing prisoners on licence

In October 2023, the government said it would seek to ease the pressure on the prison estate by moving some offenders out of prison, on licence, up to 18 days before their automatic release date.  A similar measure – the end of custody licence – was used between 2007 and 2010 to deal with prison overcrowding, allowing some prisoners to be released 18 days early.

Removing foreign national offenders

The Early Removal Scheme allows foreign national offenders serving a fixed-term prison sentence to be released early and removed from the UK. As of January 2024, these offenders can be released up to 18 months before their earliest release point (up from 12 months previously). The government says 5,262 foreign national offenders were removed under the scheme between January 2019 and June 2022.

Renting space in prisons abroad

In October 2023, the government said it would seek to rent prison space in other countries with a view to moving prisoners abroad. Norway and Belgium have both implemented similar measures, having rented prison places from the Netherlands. The legislative powers necessary to allow for these transfers were contained in the Criminal Justice Bill, which fell when Parliament was prorogued before dissolving for the general election.

Avoiding prison sentences of less than a year

Proposals in the Sentencing Bill intended to divert offenders away from prison. These would have introduced a presumption that prison sentences of 12 months and under should be suspended. A suspended sentence means the offender would not go to prison as long as they committed no further offences and complied with any requirements imposed on them. This bill also fell at the end of the last Parliament.

The proposal was welcomed by organisations that campaign for prison reform, which highlight that short prison sentences are associated with higher levels of reoffending than suspended sentences. But the direct impact on prison places would have been minimal. The impact assessment for this change in the Sentencing Bill forecast a reduction in demand of only 1,000 prison places. This would mainly benefit the female estate and category B local prisons, where most people on short sentences are sent.

Consequences for prisoners and communities

If the prison population increases as expected, the government will need to address the challenges with prison capacity. Some commentators have warned that this could distract from wider questions about offender management.

HM Chief Inspector of Prisoners, Charlie Taylor, has warned that a “preoccupation with available space” diverts attention from reflecting on what prisons should achieve, with consequences for the communities into which most prisoners will eventually be released.

Further information

• What is the Government doing to reduce pressure on prison capacity?
• The prison estate in England and Wales

Author: Doug Pyper

Photo by: Wakefield prison . Licensed by Adobe Stock (© By Duncan – stock.adobe.com).