Economic Indicators, February 2014

Preliminary estimates suggest that GDP grew by 0.7% in Q4 2013. GDP grew in each quarter of 2013, the longest period of sustained growth since the year to Q3 2010.

Falling inflation (the CPI fell to 2.0% in December) and a faster than anticipated decline in unemployment (the rate fell to 7.1% in the quarter to November) raised expectations that the Bank of England would raise interest rates before the end of 2014. For now, interest rates remain unchanged at 0.5%.

After a year and a half of slowing growth in the value of retail sales, late 2013 saw a return to stronger growth. The three months to December saw the biggest increase compared with the previous year since March 2012.