Affordable housing in England
The proportion of affordable housing in England has fallen. Increasing supply is challenging due to funding issues, increasing costs, and the planning system.
The UK’s population is growing and is projected to reach 70 million in 2026. The population is also ageing, and these factors will strain public services.
This article is part of the series Research in brief: Quick reads for the 2024 Parliament, produced for new Members of Parliament after the 2024 general election.
The UK’s population is growing, primarily because of migration, and is projected to reach 70 million in 2026. It is also ageing, 19% of people in the UK were aged 65 or over in 2022. This this number is projected to increase to 27% by 2072.
The UK’s population has been growing for much of its recent history. In 1898, the population was around 40 million; it had reached 50 million by 1948 and 60 million by 2005.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that the UK population was around 67.6 million in 2022. According to the ONS’s official population projections, it will reach 70 million by 2026.
This may not happen as projected. Population projections use assumptions based on current trends in births, deaths and international migration. All three of these are unpredictable and can be affected by things that projections don’t account for, like population health, world events and policy decisions.
Population change varies between different parts of the UK. Between the 2011 and 2021 censuses, the population in the East of England grew by 8%, more than any other English region. Growth was lowest in Wales (1%) and the North East of England (2%).
The UK’s population is also ageing. In 2022, there were around 12.7 million people aged 65 or over in the UK, making up 19% of the population. According to the ONS’s population projections, by 2072 this could rise to 22.1 million people, or 27% of the population. By contrast, 50 years ago in 1972 there were around 7.5 million people aged 65 or over, or 13% of the population. These age distributions are shown in chart 1.
According to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), there are currently around 33 people aged 65 or over for every 100 people aged 20 to 64 in the UK. This ratio is similar to the average for the European Union, but higher than some countries.
Broadly speaking, the size of the population changes for two reasons: natural change (births and deaths) and international migration.
The UK population is projected to grow because the ONS expects net migration to add people to the population each year for the foreseeable future. Net migration is the number of people migrating to the UK minus the number emigrating from it.
The ONS expects natural change to turn negative in the mid-2030s, with the number of deaths exceeding the number of births each year. At this point, only migration will be causing the population to grow, as shown in chart 2.
The number of future deaths can be projected with the most accuracy, but the number of future births is relatively uncertain and net migration is all but impossible to forecast accurately.
The ONS’s current projections, which are based on past migration patterns and current policy, show migration falling but continuing to add around 500,000 to 600,000 people to the population each year until 2026. This is high by historical standards. Throughout the 2000s and 2010s, net migration added around 200,000 people to the population each year. Before this, annual net migration was less than 100,000 and frequently negative (more people leaving than arriving).
From 2028 onwards, the ONS expects net migration to settle below its present level.
Changes in the population affect services like healthcare, housing and education – both in terms of who needs services and who is available to provide them.
For example, older people tend to have more complex healthcare needs, often involving multiple conditions. As the population ages, these issues place an increased demand on health and social care services.
Patterns of immigration may also affect health and social care provision. The NHS Confederation, a membership body for organisations that commission and provide NHS services, recently discussed the question “Is immigration harming the NHS?”. They cite evidence from a Migration Advisory Committee report that migrants from Europe contribute more to health and social care services in financial resources and work than they consume.
NHS workforce data for December 2023 shows that across all 1.49 million NHS staff in England, around one in five are from overseas. Among nurses the proportion is higher, with 29% of NHS nurses from outside the UK.
Parliamentary constituencies with the smallest populations of 65+ year olds:
Authors: Cassie Barton, Georgina Sturge and Rachael Harker
Photo Credit: © By deberarr – stock.adobe.com
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