NATO marked its 75th anniversary at a summit in Washington on 9 to 11 July 2024. The anniversary provided plenty of opportunity for commentators to provide a stocktake of the alliance and discuss its future direction (see box at the bottom of the page). Ukraine, Russia and China dominated the 38-paragraph summit declaration. NATO leaders described Ukraine’s path to membership as “inevitable”, although they refrained from setting out a clear timeframe for when the country might be formally invited to join. Instead, NATO adopted a series of measures it described as a “bridge” to membership. The declaration also paid particular attention to China, describing the country as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine and posing “systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security”. The alliance also agreed a new defence industrial pledge but avoided setting a new target for defence spending. It also agreed new and updated policies on women and counter-terrorism. However, the summit was “overshadowed”, according to the Financial Times, by President Biden’s health and the forthcoming US presidential election. This briefing provides a short summary of the major decisions taken at the summit. All quotes are taken from the summit declaration, unless otherwise attributed.

Ukraine: New pledges and a “bridge” to membership

NATO described Ukraine’s path to membership as “irreversible” and reaffirmed the view adopted at its 2023 summit that Ukraine’s future “is in NATO”. However, the Alliance did not extend an invitation to Ukraine to join; that will be when Allies “agree and conditions are met”. NATO described the decisions it made on Ukraine as constituting a “bridge” to Ukraine’s membership. This includes supporting Ukraine’s progress on interoperability (NATO describes this as the “ability for allies to act together coherently, effectively and efficiently“), and democratic and security sector reforms. Further background and analysis can be found in the Commons Library’s collection of research on the conflict in Ukraine.

Russia: “The most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security”

NATO devoted a considerable proportion of its summit declaration to Russia, which it described as having “shattered” peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area and having “gravely undermined global security”. NATO repeated its call for Russia to unconditionally withdraw all of its forces from Ukraine, and also from the Republic of Moldova and Georgia. It said Russia is seeking to “fundamentally reconfigure the Euro-Atlantic security architecture” and is a long-term threat to the alliance. However, NATO also said it “poses no threat to Russia”. The declaration specifically highlighted Russia’s nuclear capabilities and hybrid action through proxies. These include malicious cyber activities, provocations at allied borders and disinformation campaigns. The alliance pledged to develop recommendations on NATO’s strategic approach to Russia for its next summit in 2025. NATO also expressed “profound concern” at what it describes as the deepening strategic partnership between Russia and China and their “mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut and reshape the rules-based international order”.

China: Enabling Russia’s war and challenging NATO’s interests

NATO said China’s ambitions and policies “challenge our interests, security and values”. The alliance described China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine, saying China “cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation”. The declaration goes on to say China poses “systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security”, citing malicious cyber and hybrid activities, and raises concerns about its nuclear diversification and space activities.

Iran: Sending ballistic missiles to Russia would be a “substantial escalation”

Iran’s “destabilising actions” are affecting Euro-Atlantic security, NATO asserted. The alliance accused Iran of providing direct military support to Russia and warned that supplying Russia with ballistic missiles or related technology would be considered a “substantial escalation”.

Terrorism: “The most direct asymmetric threat”

Although the declaration describes terrorism as the “most direct asymmetric threat to the security of our citizens and to international peace and prosperity”, it devotes only one paragraph to countering terrorism. It does point towards NATO’s updated policy guidelines and action plan on countering terrorism.

Partners: EU, Middle East and Africa, and Indo-Pacific

NATO–EU cooperation has reached “unprecedented levels”, according to the declaration, which describes the EU as a “unique and essential partner”. It says developing coherent, complementary and interoperable defence capabilities (and avoiding unnecessary duplication) is key. A new Special Representative for the southern neighbourhood will coordinate NATO’s efforts in the Middle East and North Africa, where conflict and instability “directly affect our security and the security of our partners”. NATO will open a liaison office in Jordan. The invitation to attend the summit, extended to Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, acknowledged NATO’s greater involvement in the Indo-Pacific. Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that Iran and North Korea’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine “makes it even more important that we work closely with our like-minded partners in the Indo-Pacific”. He said specific actions will include new cooperative projects on disinformation, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence, and discussions on how to improve intelligence sharing and expanding the scope of defence industrial cooperation.

Women, Peace and Security

NATO agreed an updated women, peace and security policy, which it said will “enhance the integration of gender perspectives across all of NATO’s activities and structures, and advance gender equality within the Alliance, enabling NATO to respond better to broader security challenges”.

Defence spending

Compared with the previous summit’s focus on defence spending, there was no commitment to increase NATO’s current target of spending 2% of GDP on defence. Instead, Allies noted that “expenditure beyond 2% of GDP will be needed” to remedy “existing shortfalls”.

Defence industrial pledge

Allies agreed a new industrial capacity expansion pledge, aimed at “accelerating defence industrial capacity and production across the alliance”. These industrial capacity measures include developing national plans to strengthen industrial capacity, increasing interoperability, removing barriers to trade and investment and securing critical supply chains.

China and Russia’s reaction

Responding to the summit declaration, a spokesperson for China’s mission to the EU said NATO should “stop hyping up the so-called China threat and provoking confrontation and rivalry, and do more to contribute to world peace and stability”. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian, had previously set out China’s position on NATO: We firmly oppose NATO acting beyond its characterization as a regional defensive alliance, inserting itself into the Asia-Pacific to incite confrontation and rivalry, and disrupting the prosperity and stability in this region. We urge NATO to make real contribution to world peace, stability and security. Dmitry Peskov, President Putin’s spokesperson, described the decisions taken at the summit as a “very serious threat” to Russia’s national security, which will require Russia to “take thoughtful, coordinated, effective responses to deter NATO, to counteract NATO”. Peskov said that NATO “has once again very clearly confirmed its essence. It is an alliance created in an era of confrontation with the aim of maintaining confrontation”. Russian media also highlighted President Biden’s erroneous introduction of Ukraine’s President (see below). Peskov said they were “slips of the tongue” and the matter was an “internal US topic” but also said “we noticed that the whole word paid attention to what happened”.

US presidential election

Before the summit, there had been concerns about what a second President Trump term might mean for US relations with the alliance (such as in articles from Politico and CBS News). But the post-summit analysis focused on President Biden’s performance ahead of the US presidential election in November. In particular, President Biden mistakenly introduced Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy as “President Putin”. The Financial Times said the summit was “overshadowed by questions about whether the American president can continue his fight for re-election against Donald Trump”.

First summit for Prime Minister Keir Starmer

This was Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first NATO summit. At the press conference, the Prime Minister spoke of the UK’s “unshakeable” and “unwavering commitment” to NATO and to Ukraine, noting it was the Labour party that was “instrumental in creating NATO”. The Prime Minister also held bilateral meetings with President Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, President Yoon of the Republic of Korea, Ukraine President Zelenskyy and President Erdoğan of Turkey.

New Secretary-General and next summits

The declaration confirmed that Mark Rutte, the former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, will take over from Jens Stoltenberg as Secretary-General on 1 October 2024. His appointment was agreed at the end of June. The Netherlands will host the next summit in The Hague in June 2025, followed by a meeting in Turkey.

Selected reading

Podcasts

  • Chatham House, Independent thinking, with two former US ambassadors to NATO, Kurt Volker and Ivo Daalder, The Telegraph’s Roland Oliphant and Chatham House’s Armida van Rij
  • Politico, Power play, with General Patrick Sanders, former head of the British Army
  • Disorder, NATO’s 75th summit, with Peter Apps, author of ‘Deterring Armageddon: A biography of NATO’

Author: Louisa Brooke-Holland Photo Credit: © www.defenceimages.mod.uk, by Sergeant Paul Shaw

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