Countering Islamic State/Daesh in Africa, Syria and Iraq 2025

In October 2024 the head of the UK security service, MI5, Sir Ken McCallum, said that the “terrorist threat that concern[ed]” him most was “the worsening threat from al-Qaeda and in particular Islamic State”.

Islamic State, also known as Daesh or ISIS, is a proscribed terrorist group that from 2014 to 2019 seized and controlled large amounts of territory in Syria and Iraq. An international group, the 88-strong Global Coalition against Daesh, was formed in 2014 to defeat the group and ensure it did not recover. The UK has participated in military operations in Iraq and Syria against it.

While Islamic State no longer controls significant territory or claims the same level of attacks as when it was at its peak, UN reports in 2024 (PDF) note “heighted” concerns about threats emanating from Afghanistan, improved coordination in west Africa, and an uptick of activity in Syria and Iraq.

This research briefing describes the position of Islamic State and counter-ISIS forces in Sahel, West Africa, Syria and Iraq. Recent years have seen a withdrawal of French forces from parts of West Africa, and by September 2025, the military mission of the coalition is due to end in Iraq. The US said the decision does not represent troop withdrawal, however.

How strong is Islamic State/Daesh?

Islamic State no longer claims the level of attacks it carried out in the first years of its establishment after 2014. It also does not hold any substantial amount of territory, having once controlled areas of Syria and Iraq with a population of 10 million people.

In 2024 the group was estimated to retain (PDF) up to 6,000 fighters in Afghanistan, up to 3,000 across Iraq and Syria, and to be mobilising and expanding its activities in West Africa, where it constitutes 2,000 to 3,000 fighters in Mali, Burkina Faso and the Niger.

With the fall of the Assad government in Syria in 2024, there has been renewed focus on its position in Syria, and, in particular, the large numbers of Islamic State fighters and families held by the US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Islamic State is considered to be stronger in Syria than in Iraq, and the threat of instability and government weakness in the country create a risk for its recovery. The SDF has continued to be in armed conflict with other Syrian opposition groups since the fall of Assad.

How strong is Islamic State in Africa?

Since 2020, France has withdrawn troops from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger after military leaders severed long-standing defence agreements. In 2025, France also plans to withdraw troops from Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Chad.

2024 analysis by the Armed Conflict and Location Event Data (ACLED) argues that Islamic State in the Sahel has exploited the vacuum left by the withdrawal of French forces in the tri-state border region between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, and is now one of the region’s “most violent and active armed actors”.

In Somalia, Islamic State’s presence remains smaller than its jihadist rival and proscribed terrorist group Al-Shabaab, but in 2024 the Crisis Group think tank warned it is becoming an “important part of the jihadist group’s worldwide network”. This is because its chief, Abdulqadir Mumin, has become a key figure in the Islamic State’s global leadership, and the affiliate has become an important logistical and financial hub for Islamic State’s African and global network.

What was agreed in 2024 for Iraq, and why?

In September 2024 the Iraqi and US Governments announced the Coalition against Islamic State would end its military mission in Iraq by September 2025. Initial negotiations had been launched following armed conflict between Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq, known as the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, and the United States, and also reflective of long-standing domestic pressure for US forces to leave. The Biden administration, who negotiated the agreement, said the decision will not mean the withdrawal of US forces.

US Government monitors report that the local capacity of Iraqi security forces to contain and combat Islamic State has greatly increased, though raised concerns for the capacity of Kurdish groups in both Syria and Iraq.

Following the September 2024 announcement, the UK Government has announced its own new bilateral defence agreement with Iraq. The NATO training mission is also expected to continue to support Iraqi security forces.

What is the status of US forces in Syria?

There are around 2,000 US forces in Syria, primarily based in the northeast, supporting the SDF. Under the September 2024 agreement, some coalition capacity will remain in Iraq for a further year to facilitate the US role in Syria.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the dominant Syrian armed group following the fall of the Assad government in Syria in December 2024, has called the presence of foreign forces in the country “illegal”. It has also said all armed groups in Syria, including the SDF, should disarm. The Biden administration said US forces would remain until the SDF is able to contain Islamic State.

Turkey and Turkish-backed armed groups have been in conflict with the SDF in 2024/25, citing its links with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK (the UK, among others, considers the PKK a terrorist group). Turkey says it can counter Islamic State and says this would allow the US to cut its ties with the SDF.

In February 2025 there were unconfirmed media reports that the Trump administration may be considering the withdrawal of US forces from Syria over a 30-,60- or 90-day period. In January Secretary of State Marco Rubio had said there would be “implications to abandoning partners” and it was “in the national interest” to ensure Islamic State does not recover in Syria.

During his first administration, in 2018 President Trump announced he would withdraw all US forces from Syria, citing the military defeat of Islamic State. This did not take place, but a withdrawal from some areas did occur a year later, which was followed by a Turkish-led offensive against the SDF. The SDF criticised the withdrawal and has called for US forces to remain in 2025.

How strong is Islamic State in Afghanistan?

The Taliban has close ties with other proscribed terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda. Both the US-led coalition and Afghanistan’s neighbours fear the country will attract terrorists. Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K), the regional affiliate of Islamic State, continues in the country. In 2021, the UN had warned that IS-K was present in “nearly all provinces and increasingly active” and in 2025 that it “represented the most serious threat to the de facto authorities, ethnic and religious minorities” (PDF) and others in the country.

Section 3 of the Commons Library research briefing Recent developments in Afghanistan, March 2025, summarises Islamic State activity in the country under the Taliban.