Policing and protests
Parliament has introduced new offences to manage protests. This approach has come under scrutiny due to protests about the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Students, care workers and humanitarian visa schemes have contributed to record net migration. Immigration may fall in 2024 with no further policy changes.
This article is part of the series Research in brief: Quick reads for the 2024 Parliament, produced for new Members of Parliament after the 2024 general election.
International students, care workers and humanitarian visa schemes have contributed to record net migration. Both Labour and the Conservatives have said they want immigration to fall, which may happen during the 2024 Parliament even with no policy changes.
In 2019, net migration – the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants – was roughly 180,000. Four years later, the Office for National Statistics estimated it was close to 700,000 in 2023.
Three factors in particular helped to increase net migration during the last Parliament, despite a post-Brexit fall in EU immigration.
First, student visas. In 2019, the government set a target of 600,000 international students studying in the UK by 2030. This was achieved in 2020. The relaunch of a post-study work permit, the Graduate visa, helped increase the UK’s appeal.
Second, social care. In February 2022, on the recommendation of independent advisers, the government made frontline care workers eligible for sponsored work visas. Since then, 145,000 social care visas have been issued (40% of all Skilled Worker visas).
Third, humanitarian visa schemes. In 2022, people from Ukraine and Hong Kong accounted for almost one fifth of non-EU net migration.
Experts had expected that leaving the European Union would reduce immigration overall. Ending free movement for EU citizens, most thought, would have a bigger impact than easing work visa rules for non-Europeans.
But increases in non-EU migration, partly driven by the factors mentioned above, have more than outweighed the effect of Brexit.
Between 2019 and 2023, visas issued to people from South Asia tripled. For sub-Saharan Africa, the increase was 450%. Zimbabwe, for instance, accounted for 46,000 Skilled Worker visas last year compared to 1,000 in 2019.
The government made changes to reduce net migration in early 2024. In particular, it banned some postgraduate students and all care workers from bringing partners and children (normally allowed for most visas).
Government statistics suggest that the number of people on these visas is now falling.
Oxford University and London School of Economics experts had expected net migration to drop without the recent changes. This is partly because humanitarian visa numbers have fallen, and partly because high immigration usually leads eventually to high emigration, lowering net migration in subsequent years.
Under the UK’s current immigration framework, the government does not directly control the number of people coming to the UK. It typically sets visa rules rather than numerical quotas.
The Migration Advisory Committee, an independent body that advises the government, cautions that it is not always possible to predict exactly what will happen after ministers decide the visa parameters and that the government should be cautious about promising a specific migration number.
Further information
Authors: CJ McKinney and Georgina Sturge
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