International students, care workers and humanitarian visa schemes have contributed to record net migration. Both Labour and the Conservatives have said they want immigration to fall, which may happen during the 2024 Parliament even with no policy changes.

In 2019, net migration – the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants – was roughly 180,000. Four years later, the Office for National Statistics estimated it was close to 700,000 in 2023.

Students, social care and humanitarian visas

Three factors in particular helped to increase net migration during the last Parliament, despite a post-Brexit fall in EU immigration.

First, student visas. In 2019, the government set a target of 600,000 international students studying in the UK by 2030. This was achieved in 2020. The relaunch of a post-study work permit, the Graduate visa, helped increase the UK’s appeal.

Second, social care. In February 2022, on the recommendation of independent advisers, the government made frontline care workers eligible for sponsored work visas. Since then, 145,000 social care visas have been issued (40% of all Skilled Worker visas).

Third, humanitarian visa schemes. In 2022, people from Ukraine and Hong Kong accounted for almost one fifth of non-EU net migration.

Higher non-EU immigration outweighed lower EU immigration

Experts had expected that leaving the European Union would reduce immigration overall. Ending free movement for EU citizens, most thought, would have a bigger impact than easing work visa rules for non-Europeans.

But increases in non-EU migration, partly driven by the factors mentioned above, have more than outweighed the effect of Brexit.

A chart showing annual net migration of non-EU nationals to the UK rising steeply from 2021 onwards while net migration of EU nationals reduced. A second chart showing that annual net migration was frequently negative during the 1960s and 1970s but generally positive from then on.
Sources: Office for National Statistics (ONS), Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2023; ONS, Provisional long-term international migration estimates: August 2020 edition; ONS, Annual Abstract of Statistics, various years

Between 2019 and 2023, visas issued to people from South Asia tripled. For sub-Saharan Africa, the increase was 450%. Zimbabwe, for instance, accounted for 46,000 Skilled Worker visas last year compared to 1,000 in 2019.

Net migration now looks set to fall

The government made changes to reduce net migration in early 2024. In particular, it banned some postgraduate students and all care workers from bringing partners and children (normally allowed for most visas).

Government statistics suggest that the number of people on these visas is now falling.

Oxford University and London School of Economics experts had expected net migration to drop without the recent changes. This is partly because humanitarian visa numbers have fallen, and partly because high immigration usually leads eventually to high emigration, lowering net migration in subsequent years.

Immigration cuts are possible but hard to calibrate

Under the UK’s current immigration framework, the government does not directly control the number of people coming to the UK. It typically sets visa rules rather than numerical quotas.

The Migration Advisory Committee, an independent body that advises the government, cautions that it is not always possible to predict exactly what will happen after ministers decide the visa parameters and that the government should be cautious about promising a specific migration number.

Further information


Authors: CJ McKinney and Georgina Sturge

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