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After 18 months of political uncertainty about the prospects for its apparently endless peace process, Nepal is due to hold elections for a new Constituent Assembly on 19 November. The original Constituent Assembly elected under the 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement was dissolved in May 2012 having failed to agree a new Constitution. The main issue holding up agreement on a new Constitution had been federalism.

If the elections do go ahead as planned, another turbulent interregnum will come to an end and efforts to agree a new Constitution can at last resume. But it is highly unlikely that Nepal will suddenly become an oasis of political calm. A break-away Maoist faction and a number of ethnically-based parties have pledged to boycott and disrupt the elections, which could bring them into direct confrontation with the army.

While some may despair that the peace process in Nepal will ever reach its final destination, there remain grounds for hope that the country will eventually find its way there, albeit by a very circuitous route. The International Crisis Group has in the past cautioned against excessive pessimism about the country’s prospects, arguing that there is considerable “order in chaos” in contemporary Nepal:

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